• This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP
  • Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2
  • Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments
  • The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6
  • Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3
  • I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2’s, which is what we have
  • After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2
  • Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2
  • Now previous GDP years have been revised, with the net effect of lowering U.S. GDP growth almost 1 percentage point for the past three years
  • After revisions, the average growth rate is 2% per year
  • 2015 Q1 & Q2 average GDP growth rate is just 1.45%
  • The worst first half of the “recovery”
  • What is the point of raising rates now, when the economy is at its weakest?
  • The Fed is still waiting to see improvements in the labor market
  • Unemployment is low
  • The Fed is waiting to see increases in wage growth and in labor force participation
  • It is unlikely that there will be more part-time workers finding full time jobs
  • The Fed is still putting on a show, pretending that a rate hike will be appropriats
  • This recovery is the weakest recovery in the modern era, since WWII
  • We have had the most Keynesian monetary stimulus ever
  • The Keynesians will not consider that their policies are an economic sedative
  • Even though this is the biggest economic ever, the Keynesians still want more
  • Redbook Year-Over-Year Same Store Sales rose by just 1%
  • Last year, the year-over-year growth was 3%
  • Pundits blame poor retail sales on “hot weather”
  • People aren’t shopping because they aren’t making enough money
  • The U.S. home ownership rate fell to a new low of 63.4%
  • The result of government efforts to increase home ownership is the the lowest rate since 1967
  • Rental prices are at an all time record high
  • July Consumer Confidence plunged from 99.8 in June to 90.9 in July
  • As evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. economy is weaker than the government and the press report, the dollar remains high
  • Gold is not getting a rally from the economic news
  • Shorting of gold by speculators is a dangerous game, as there is no indication that the price of gold overvalued
  • It’s not the traders who are buying gold. It’s the strong, long-term holders that are doing all the buying