- This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP
- Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2
- Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments
- The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6
- Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3
- I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2’s, which is what we have
- After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2
- Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2
- Now previous GDP years have been revised, with the net effect of lowering U.S. GDP growth almost 1 percentage point for the past three years
- After revisions, the average growth rate is 2% per year
- 2015 Q1 & Q2 average GDP growth rate is just 1.45%
- The worst first half of the “recovery”
- What is the point of raising rates now, when the economy is at its weakest?
- The Fed is still waiting to see improvements in the labor market
- Unemployment is low
- The Fed is waiting to see increases in wage growth and in labor force participation
- It is unlikely that there will be more part-time workers finding full time jobs
- The Fed is still putting on a show, pretending that a rate hike will be appropriats
- This recovery is the weakest recovery in the modern era, since WWII
- We have had the most Keynesian monetary stimulus ever
- The Keynesians will not consider that their policies are an economic sedative
- Even though this is the biggest economic ever, the Keynesians still want more
- Redbook Year-Over-Year Same Store Sales rose by just 1%
- Last year, the year-over-year growth was 3%
- Pundits blame poor retail sales on “hot weather”
- People aren’t shopping because they aren’t making enough money
- The U.S. home ownership rate fell to a new low of 63.4%
- The result of government efforts to increase home ownership is the the lowest rate since 1967
- Rental prices are at an all time record high
- July Consumer Confidence plunged from 99.8 in June to 90.9 in July
- As evidence continues to pour in that the U.S. economy is weaker than the government and the press report, the dollar remains high
- Gold is not getting a rally from the economic news
- Shorting of gold by speculators is a dangerous game, as there is no indication that the price of gold overvalued
- It’s not the traders who are buying gold. It’s the strong, long-term holders that are doing all the buying
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