Will the Trade War Prick America’s Bubble Economy? – Ep. 369

“Bring on the Trade War!”

Today is Jobs Friday, but before I get to the jobs report, I want to talk a little bit about the escalation of the trade war,  In fact, some stories I’m reading are that the trade war began today, or last night.  A lot of the tariffs are finally being imposed.  The market reacted positively; the Dow was up 100 points today.  The NASDAQ was up 100 points as well, which is percentage-wise a much bigger increase – 1.34% move – so who cares about a trade war?  “Bring it on! America is going to win the trade war because we’ve got the least to lose because we’ve got the biggest deficits.

Dollar Sold Off Despite Trade War and Jobs Number

The dollar, meanwhile, sold off today. The dollar index closed at 94, barely held the 94 handle.  It traded below briefly, despite what many people consider a stronger Nonfarm Payroll report. So, the dollar went down despite the beginning of the trade war and despite the supposed strong jobs number. To me, the dollar topped out at 95; I expect us to crack below 94 next week, and if we break below 93, if we get into the 92’s I am pretty sure the rally is over, technically speaking and we’re heading for new lows relatively quickly.

Who is the Industrial Powerhouse?

Let me get back to the trade war that we are supposedly going to win.  One of the most interesting things about it, is when you look at the goods each side is imposing tariffs on.  When you look at that, you can see which country is the industrial powerhouse and which country is a third world country masquerading as an economic power. Here are the goods made in China that Trump wants to tax the American citizens on:

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