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Will Fed Capitulation Forestall Stock Market Crash? – Ep. 403

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Bearish Signal

So much for yesterday’s dead cat bounce.  All of the U.S. stock market averages came plunging down today, in fact they all closed below yesterday’s lows. So even though we had those big rallies off the lows, today, we lost the entire gain and closed lower than yesterday’s low point.  That is is the most bearish signal you can get.

Yesterday’s Short Covering

Remember on yesterday’s podcast, I was not impressed with yesterday’s rally. I thought it was a typical “reversal Tuesday” rally that should be ignored. To me, it looked like a lot of short covering, particularly if you look at the type of stocks that were being bought.  They seemed to me that they were the stocks that had a lot of shorts, so the shorts saw a big gap down and decided to take an opportunity to cover. But, when you have a lot of shorts who cover, that’s actually bearish, because during the next decline, they are no longer there to buy. That’s why this next decline could be particularly vicious.  I don’t think the decline is finished; as I said, I think it is just getting started, unless the Federal Reserve is going to come in and change the nature of the game,

Biggest Single NASDAQ Decline since 2008 Financial Crisis

The Dow was down over 600 points today – 608 points. That is a percentage decline of  2.41%.  Of course there were a lot of stocks that did a lot worse.  Earnings today from AT&T – that stock was down just over 8%.  I think there were also some worries concerning the slow growth of subscribers at DirecTV, a recent AT&T acquisition.  Also, UPS, came out with disappointing earnings today. The stock was down 5.5% today.  Boeing might be the only stock that was positive today, up 1.3% – a beat.

The fact that this was the biggest single day decline in Nasdaq since the 2008 financial crisis means that today’s drop is larger than any point drop that we had during the 2008 financial crisis. You have to go all the way back to the bursting of the dot com bubble.  Something big is happening when you see this kind of drop. The market technically couldn’t be weaker.