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Will April Showers Rain on the Wall Street Excuse Parade? – Ep 68

  • April Fool’s Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks
  • Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero
  • Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom
  • Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build
  • No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback
  • U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains
  • Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3%
  • Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations
  • First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013
  • Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month
  • Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed’s objective to maintain spending bubble
  • Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth
  • The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending
  • The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008
  • Chicago PMI was below 50 in March – near 6 year lows
  • March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months – biggest miss vs expected in 4 years
  • March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 – lowest level in 22 months – 5-month decline – first time since 2008
  • Construction spending “unexpectedly fell”
  • Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP
  • Stock market weakening again – oil and gold up
  • U.S. dollar no longer making new highs
  • Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market
  • Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades
  • Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise
  • Friday jobs number, the Fed’s gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news
  • Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4