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Trumped Up Rate Hikes – Ep. 200

  • This is my 200th  podcast and I looked back to the date of the first one and it was just over 2 years ago, September 2014
  • I began this podcast shortly after I ended the Peter Schiff Radio Show
  • I hope everybody is enjoying these podcasts and if you like what you’re listening to, help turn on other people to the same information
  • Statements early this morning by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker certainly sent tremors through the precious metals markets
  • Gold tumbled over $40/oz; closing $1268 and change
  • This is the first time we’ve actually been below $1300 in the last few months
  • Silver down just over a buck; 17.78
  • It wasn’t that long ago that we’d gotten above $20
  • It was even worse for gold and silver mining stocks; this was the worse day of the year for those stocks
  • The markets closed right near the lows of the day
  • There was a big sell-off right after those statements came out and there was no reprieve
  • The dollar was stronger on the day, although not against the euro
  • There were some rumors that the European Central Bank may begin to taper its QE program
  • That held the euro steady against the dollar
  • The weak currencies were the yen and the pound which was “pounded” again to about a new 35-year low
  • On concerns that we might have a hard Brexit rather than a soft Brexit
  • This is more a matter of the yen and pound weakness today than dollar strength
  • The bond market was weaker on the day, closing near the lows
  • The Dow, though, only off about 85 points
  • If the markets really believe that a rate hike is coming, which is clearly what the metals traders seem to believe
  • I think the stock market should be even weaker
  • Although probably what’s helping the stock market is the strength in the financials
  • Because as I have said before, people actually believe that higher interest rates are good for the financials
  • So the fear of higher rates actually lifted the financials, which helped support the market
  • But people who think the Fed is going to raise rates, and that higher rates are good for the financials
  • They’re wrong twice, because the Fed’s probably not going to raise rates and if they did, it would be horrible for financials
  • They might get lucky, though because they’d be wrong on the rate hike and would not then lose as much had the Fed actually raised rates
  • I want to go over the Lacker’s statement that started all the turmoil: What did this guy say that caused everybody to jump to the conclusion that the Fed’s about to hike rates?
  • The probability of a rate hike had been rising; it didn’t just start today, but the probability did notch up a bit
  • They’re now looking at a 60% chance of a December rate hike, but there’s a 25% chance now of a November rate hike
  • The November meeting is one week before the election why would people think the Fed would take a chance on an adverse market reaction to a rate hike a week before the election?