Wednesday Reversal Day

On my Wednesday podcast, I talked about Wednesday reversal day, where we gapped way down and then rallied and closed up.  It was a strong outside reversal day. I thought this could be the beginning of a correction.  The correction meaning a rise in a bear market.  Everybody thinks we’re in a correction now of a bull market, but I think the bull market is over and a rise is the correction.

Three Consecutive Up Days

So I thought maybe we’ll get one based on that reversal day, and we did.  For one day. The market was up on Thursday; I think the Dow was up better than 200 points, so we did have some follow through to Tuesday and Wednesday’s gains.  We had 3 consecutive up days.  Remember we had a big down day on Monday, but then we had those 3 up days.

End of Bear Market Correction

Well the whole correction came to an end today.  The Dow at one point again was down better than 700 points; we didn’t close that badly – we were down 572 points.  Still, below 24,000; 23,932.  This is only the second close below 24,000 this year, on a weekly basis.  The last time was 2 weeks ago.  The NASDAQ was down 161 points back below 7000 – 6915.

Dangerous Territory in Dow Transports

Dow Transports were also down big.  They were down 307 points, just barely avoiding the Dow Theory sell signal.  So we’re not quite there.  We can easily be there on Monday.  If we have another down day on Monday, it seems that we’re going to have a sell signal for the Dow Theory.

Pattern Developing

That seems to be the pattern: big down day Friday followed by a big down day Monday.  Believe me the technicals on this market look awful.  So there is certainly another chance that we have another big sell off on Monday. This entire bear market so far, we’ve had a pattern of a big sell off on Fridays and Mondays and sometimes we get a big down day, we don’t get the follow through on Monday, but to me, this looks like it’s all clear on the way down.