Market Movers: Singapore Summit

We’ve got a lot of potentially market-moving events going on this week; we’ve got the Summit which I think is getting underway this evening with North Korea’s President Kim Jong Un and President Trump meeting in  Singapore.

No Market Move Expected on Rate Hike

We’ve got the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting beginning tomorrow, it’s a 2-day meeting ending on Wednesday.  The odds of a rate hike are 100%! So in all probability there will be a rate hike.  Eventually the Fed is going to reverse course and that will come as a surprise; odds are the surprise won’t happen on Wednesday. Right now we are at one and a half to one and three quarters, so  the next hike will be one and three quarters to two. I think what might surprise the markets, is if the Fed dials back expectations for later hikes. A lot of people are still looking for 2 more hikes this year in addition to the one we will get on Wednesday.  They may indicate that they are closer to the end of their rate-hiking cycle.  Maybe they will dial back their anticipated “Quantitative Tightening”. I don’t think the Fed is going to deliver much at all in the way of Quantitative Tightening but they may indicate to the markets that they’re not going to do as much as what the the markets believe.  But in any event, given a 100% probability of a hike this time, the hike itself will not move markets at all.

What If They Don’t Hike?

If the Fed does not hike, that would provide a big boost to gold and a big drop in the dollar. If they do not hike, that would be an indication that there may not be as many future hikes.  But, again, if you look at how gold has traded in the past, if you look at how gold has traded in this cycle, it has generally been bullish for gold, if not the very day, then within the next few days.