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Broader Averages Up

The Dow Jones rose 171 points today recovering a little better than half of yesterday’s 300 point decline, helped by some better than expected earnings in both IBM and Proctor and Gamble. The broader averages is also up, but not nearly as much, because of the impact from those stocks; obviously not as strong. In fact, the NASDAQ, and even the S&P 500 all took out yesterday’s lows intra-day, but still managed to eke out small gains – actually the Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day.

Dow Transports Down All Day

But the Dow Transports were down all day. They didn’t even recover; they closed off the lows, adding about 48 points to yesterday’s decline.  But everybody in the financial media, in fact everybody at Davos (I’m going to talk about that in a minute) but everybody seems to be completely forgetting the bear market.  Ignoring the fact that we went into a bear market and pretending that either we’re back in a correction of the bull market or we’ve actually left correction territory, as if the bull market is still intact, and that bear market that we had never even really took place.

I Wouldn’t Bet on the Fact That the Bear Market Is Over

Now, it is possible that the bear market is over.  I am not saying it’s impossible.  It seems to me again that it is extremely unlikely that the longest bull market in history is going to be followed by the shortest bear market in history. I guess it could happen but I wouldn’t want to bet on it. A lot of people seem to be betting on it. To me, again, the rally that we had made a lot of sense. After all, the Fed came in and did exactly what I have been saying it is going to do since before they raised rates for the first time.