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Rate Cut First Step on the Road to Zero – Ep. 488

I Bet an Ounce of Gold that Fed would Cut Rates

Today I officially won an ounce of gold! I am referencing a bet that I made back in January of this year. During a panel discussion, I said that I though that the Fed was more likely to cut rates in 2019, than hike them.  I was the only person on the panel who believed that.  Everybody else thought that the Fed would be raising rates, which pretty much was the conventional wisdom in early January.

Check out My Forecasts in December and January on YouTube

So today, the Fed cut rates, which is what I have been saying they would do.  In fact, not only did I put up a small YouTube video of that bet, as well as a video of the entire panel on my YouTube channel. But I also cut a minute or so segment from my interview on the Monday in December 2018 the week the Fed raised rates, 2 days later on a Wednesday.  That was the final hike where the Fed went from 2% to 2.25%, to 2.25% to 2.5%.

Fed Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points

I was interviewed by Liz Claman– by the way I will be on Liz Claman’s show tomorrow – they’ve renamed the show it is the Claman Countdown. But when I was on Liz’ show back in December I made the forecast then: If the Fed raised rates in December that week, which, I thought they would, (everybody believed they would – they wouldn’t want to disappoint the markets) I said that it would be the last hike, and that the very next move that the Fed would make would be to cut rates. And that is exactly what they did today. They cut rates by 25 basis points.

December’s Rate Hike Erased

So they basically took away the last rate hike and the rate is now where it was prior to the December rate hike. Now, I believe that cutting rates was a mistake.  I think the Fed should have already raised rates by more than they have. Not because the U.S. economy is in great shape, because it’s in lousy shape. It is a gigantic bubble.