• When I recorded my last video blog, I mentioned how positively the market reacted to jobs report, which could signal the Fed to raise rates
  • I said there might be a delayed reaction and, in fact it did
  • Four days into this trading week we are down more than 450 points
  • Also, I did an interview on CNBC.com where I said I felt the retail markets would have a a tough time this Christmas
  • That was translated into headlines that I stated that consumers would have a horrible Christmas, which was not my point
  • So far, my prediction about the retail space is bearing out, bad earnings reports from Macy’s Walmart, Men’s Wearhouse, and its subsidiary, Joseph A. Bank, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus
  • The data that the Fed depends on is getting worse and worse
  • If the Fed raises rates in December, it will prove that they have not been data dependent, they were delaying
  • Copper a six-month low today, oil prices are down, gold hit a new low inter-day but rallied back and the dollar finished broadly lower for the day
  • Based on these market prices, the Fed will have another excuse to delay rate hikes, again
  • What will stop the stock market from falling? The only thing that will stop it is if the Fed takes a rate hike off the table
  • I recently wrote a commentary where I reference the shadow rate
  • Tightening actually began about 18 months ago when the Fed started tapering
  • The Fed’s monetary policy is not just about rates, it is also about easing and foreward guidance
  • When the Fed began tapering they were tightening
  • When they began talking about raising rates that was the equivalent of tightening, because the markets braced for the hikes
  • That’s why the economy is rolling over, that’s why the stock market is rolling over
  • Given how weak this recovery has been and the enormity of the stimulus required, if the Fed removes all stimulus it will result in a worse than normal reaction in this over-valued stock market compared to previous tightening cycles
  • More evidence of the weakening economy is the number of millennials still living with their parents is at a record high
  • I posted a Bloomberg article on my Facebook page about the number of young women living at home is the highest in 70b years
  • Bloomberg prefaces the article by stating that this is not a sign of a weak economy, but clearly it is
  • This also affects housing:
  • Couples are delaying buying “starter homes” which delays or prevents them from saving up for a down payment on their dream house
  • I also wanted to discuss the Fox Business Republican Debate
  • I believe Rand Paul was actually the winner of that debate
  • Paul stood out, and made some good points, which allowed him to move forward in the polls
  • Paul is drawing a contrast, as he made the point that the real threat to the U.S. is not a military threat from the outside, but the self-inflicted threat of a weak economy
  • Our debt is a bigger enemy than ISIS
  • Paul also avoided jumping on the immigration bandwagon. Immigration is not the problem. If we turn off the welfare magnet, then the only people who come to America will be the people who want to work
  • The country would benefit from that, because it will keep labor costs down and boost productivity
  • The anti-immigrant voice of the Republican party will be vilified as racist in the general election