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Market’s Delayed Reaction to the Jobs Report – Ep. 69

  • Markets are finally getting a chance to react to worst jobs report in two years
  • March non-farm payrolls coming in at about half of forecast
  • Dollar was off about 1% on FOREX
  • Stock futures were down on opening bell but shot 100 points higher
  • “Bad News is Good News” rally
  • CNBC thinks jobs takes June rate hike is off the table – but it was never on the table in the first place
  • The Fed will not be serving a September rate hike either
  • It’s going to be an all you can eat “QE Buffet”
  • The dollar should have sold off more, but the bull market persists
  • Currency traders are using circular logic about the strong dollar
  • The dollar is rising for the same reason that the economy is slowing – the Fed has suspended QE and higher rates are expected
  • The effects of a strong currency should build over time
  • When the dollar uptrend ends, it will be a collapse because there are so many people on the wrong side of the trade
  • March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slipped more than expected – lowest since June 2014, a two-year low
  • Monday WSJ article said that if Fed is worried to raise rates even a quarter of a point, then the U.S. Economy is not as strong as everyone thinks
  • If the Fed really believes the economy is strong, they would have already raised rates
  • Continued low interest rates indicate the Fed does not believe the economy is strong.
  • Crude Oil continues to rebound – above $53/barrel
  • If we close above $54, the market should see move up to mid $70’s
  • Higher oil prices will start to hurt consumers