Stock Market Decline Predicted Last Friday

I have to warn you up front that I seem to have come down with something last night after the game, and I am having trouble talking today.  I normally would not record, but I have to because on Friday’s podcast I predicted the decline that we saw today.

I Told You So

Of course, we did not have a Black Monday like 1987; it wasn’t a 20% decline. It was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1175 points. We were down 1600 points at the low.  Although this is not the biggest point decline and in terms of percentage, it is in the top 20 (I think it was number 14).  This is a major decline.  We rarely see declines this big, and I’m pretty much going to say, yeah, I told you so on Friday.

Stocks Rising for All the Wrong Reasons

I have been seeing this coming for a while.  I know a lot of Peter Schiff critics say, “he’s a stopped clock, he says the stock market’s going to crash every day, except I don’t do that.  Anybody who actually listens to what I say, realizes that I rarely call for the stock market to crash, let alone even go down.  I have been saying the stock market was going to go up for all the wrong reasons during most of the time it was rising. I said it was a bubble as a result of cheap money.

Big Drop in Bond Market Signaled Crash

It wasn’t until very recently that I began talking about a crash.  In fact, on the way up, one of the reasons I thought the market wouldn’t crash, was because I thought the Fed would save it. It would reverse course, and take back the idea that it would raise rates or shrink its balance sheet.  But, recently, as it became obvious that the Fed was not giving up and the market was increasing its expectations of rate hikes and I saw a big drop in the bond market, (which I had been warning about for the last several weeks) I’ve been saying, “Hey wait a minute!  This stock market’s going to crash!”