- Bad economic news coming in is more a deluge than a trickle
- Dollar continuing to drift lower since “patience” was removed
- New Zealand Dollar record high against the euro and the Australian dollar
- New Zealand enjoys a strong currency, economic growth, low inflation and low unemployment
- Swiss franc had a strong day today
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index revised down to -.11
- Three consecutive months of declining numbers
- Deteriorating numbers reflect pattern similar to pre-QE3 months
- Existing home sales number below estimates
- February new home sales up, however
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8, twice as low as most negative forecast. declining 4 times in 5 months
- CPI came in at .2%, exactly as expected; core up to 1.7
- Price of ground beef up 19.2%, at a record high
- The jobs numbers are a lagging indicator
- We are likely to see a jobs number downturn based on less optimistic assumptions
- Weaker jobs number will keep rates low
- The only thing that might drive rates higher is inflation, but goal of “medium term” is vague
- Weaker economy and higher inflation will cause dollar to drop
- When inflation is the only focus, it will be obvious that the Fed cannot raise rates, driving dollar down
- A currency crisis will finally force the Fed to raise rates
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