Of Course You Know, This Means War – Ep. 467

May 13 – 15, 2019

As Noted on My Last Podcast…

As I suspected on Friday’s podcast, the 400-point reversal that saw the Dow move from down 300 points + to up 100 points on the close was in fact, reversed today, and the Dow Jones actually closed below the Friday low, which is a huge negative, technically for the index.  The Dow was down 617 points; that’s about 2.4 %.  But the real carnage was in the NASDAQ.  That was down 3.4%.  The Russell 2000 also down better than 3% – 3.2%, showing that domestically focused stocks are actually getting hit harder than the multi-nationals.

Lyft and Uber Still Sinking

More trouble again for the recent IPO’s, in particular, the ride-hailing companies Lyft  – down again, another 5.8% off the lows of the day – the lowest $47.17, closed at $48.15.  The Uber disaster continues.  Uber was down almost 11% today.  At one point, it was down 12% – the low was $36.08.  We closed at 37.10. Remember we came public Friday. This is only the second trading day.  Uber came public at $45, and now it is at $37.10, and as I said again on last week’s podcast, these types of stocks are going to get particularly hit hard if the market carnage continues, which I think it will.

China: No Deal

I think the bear market rally is over – I’ve been saying that, “Long live the bear market”. The Bear market rally is dead.  We are going a lot lower.  The catalyst today was also something that I was pointing out on my podcast last week, and that was the fact that we are not going to get a deal with China. I’ve been saying for a long time, that even if we got a deal, it would be, “buy the rumor, sell the fact”. But I also said that it was becoming obvious that Trump had so over-promised the “great deal” that it was almost impossible to have a deal without disappointing the markets. So, I think Trump made a calculated decision that no deal is better than a deal that disappoints, especially since he had already goosed the market up to new highs.  So even if we sold off, Trump could say, “Well, this is some short-term pain; it’s necessary for the long-term gain.” and it may, in fact be the catalyst that causes the Fed to cut interest rates and launch QE, which is what Trump wants.