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Dow Could Not Hold Onto the Gain

After yesterday’s, I think 550 point drop in the Dow, the market bounced back a bit today.  I think at one point earlier in the day the Dow managed to gain over 200 points, but it could not hold on to that gain.  It closed down just under one point.  Very weak technical action for today’s pre-Thanksgiving bounce. Normally, the markets are up on the day before Thanksgiving, and in general, they were.  The other indexes all managed to close in the black, although considerably off their intra-day highs.

Decline in Retail Touted as Excuse, But It’s Just a Bear Market

The XRT, which is an index of retailers (I talked about that on this podcast before) snapped an 8-day losing streak.  More bad news came out from retailers yesterday; that was part of the reason that you saw the big sell-off in the Dow.  That was the excuse; I don’t think the market needs a reason to go down. It’s a bear market, and that’s what bear markets do – they go down. Of course people who don’t know that they’re in a bear market make excuses to try to rationalize why the market is going down because they don’t want to admit that they are, in fact, in a bear market.

Dead Cat Bounces All Around

Everything bounced today, I guess dead cat bounces all around. Even Bitcoin managed a rally. In fact yesterday, Bitcoin got as low as $4,050.  So it held $4,000.  Of course, you have people saying, “Ah Ha! $4,000 is the bottom!” I doubt it. It makes sense that there’d be some support at a round number. I doubt that this is THE low. It may not last more than a day or two, given the momentum in this decline.

Malinvestments are a Classic Part of Every Bubble

Remember I have talked about all the malinvestments that are taking place. When a lot of people argued with me about why Bitcoin was going to succeed, they pointed out that all this capital was going into the industry; all this infrastructure was being built up, and so therefore Bitcoin was going to work because it had all this infrastructure behind it. My argument was always that  infrastructure represents malinvestment. That is a classic part of every bubble.