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Alien Invasion More Likely Than July Rate Hike – Ep.174

  • Gold closed the week at the highest weekly close since January of 2015
  • Not quite above the $1300 benchmark – I think we closed about $1298 – up about $20 on the day
  • Intra-day yesterday, gold was well above $1300
  • Until there was news that a British Member of Parliament was shot and that somehow revised hope for the “stay” vote in the Brexit referendum
  • As if the price of gold is going up based on the outcome of that vote
  • As far as I’m concerned next week’s vote is a non-event for the gold market
  • The conventional wisdom seems to believe that if Britain leaves, all hell is going to break loose in Europe
  • I guess all this chaos is supposed to be bullish for gold
  • If Britain votes to stay, the euro will go up and that might be bullish for gold, because a weak dollar is generally bullish for gold
  • I think gold will go up regardless of the British vote
  • The price of gold is not going up because of what’s happening in Europe
  • It’s going up because of what’s happening in the United States
  •  More specifically at the Federal Reserve
  • The Federal Reserve concluded its June meeting on Wednesday and Janet Yellen – surprise! did not raise interest rates
  • If you remember, a few months ago, some minutes leaked to the public caused the public to think the Fed would raise rates in June for sure – maybe July, but probably June
  • And gold tanked and the dollar rallied and I said, “I don’t think so.”
  • There’s nothing in these minutes that say the Fed is going to do anything
  • It’s the same old Open Mouth Operation
  • If you read between the lines, they didn’t commit to anything
  • But she cried wolf and everybody came running, and
  • Not only did the Fed not raise in June but they backtracked on their intentions to raise rates in the future
  • They toned down their so-called dot plots for this year and next year
  • Now, instead of announcing the first rate hike of the year, they actually pushed back expectations
  • There were a lot of articles about the Fed losing credibility, the Fed surrendering
  • This is what I have been forecasting
  • None of this is a surprise to faithful listeners to this podcast
  • Those who have been listening to the talking heads on the major media outlets expect the Fed to raise rates because they actually believe that the Fed’s policies have worked and that we have a recovery
  • They have not figured out that this is a bubble
  • They never figure it out until after the bubble has burst
  • If you go back and read the transcript of Janet Yellen’s press conference, she’s still talking about  a July rate hike
  • If she had been honest, she would have said,”Why would we raise rates in July? We didn’t raise them in June, what is going to change in a month?
  • But she is still on script:  she said, “I guess it’s not impossible that we could raise rates in July”
  • So that’s what it’s come to:
  • It’s come to, “We’re probably going to raise rates in June or July” and now we’re at, “I guess it’s not impossible”
  • There a lot of things that are not impossible. It’s not impossible that aliens are going to invade the Earth in July