• The stock market continues to ride the Trump wave to new highs, in fact the Russell 2000 hit an all-time record high today
  • The enthusiasm for stocks not being dampened by the carnage in the bond market
  • We now have the yield on the 10-year treasury up at around almost 2.3
  • And the yield on the 30-year now, just below 3% – 2.99
  • Yields are still low, but nowhere near as low as they were
  • And of course, nowhere near as low as they’re headed
  • It’s not just the fact that bond yields are rising, but the rapidity with which they’re rising
  • And the technical damage that is being done
  • This again, as I said in an earlier podcast this could be the beginning of an explosive move up in interest rates
  • And right now, nobody seems to care, least of all Janet Yellen
  • She testified today – her supposedly hawkish testimony is one of the reasons that gold sold off today and the dollar rallied
  • Before she spoke, gold was positive on the day
  • She did say it would likely be appropriate to raise rates “soon”
  • And everybody interprets “soon” as, the next chance they get, which is less than a month from now
  • Although, if the Fed is really determined to raise interest rates in December
  • Why not just say it?
  • Why say it may be appropriate to raise them soon?
  • Just say, “It’s appropriate to raise them in December”
  • They still want to leave themselves plenty of wiggle room
  • Even though the markets are saying it’s a 95% probability
  • The Fed is still being very coy and data dependent
  • I think what’s more important for the markets is the fact that Janet Yellen acknowledged
  • That if we get a fiscal stimulus – which she doesn’t even think is needed –
  • She pointed out that we have a growing economy, everything is good, the unemployment rate is very low
  • And that stimulus now in the form of tax cuts or extra government spending could overheat the economy
  • And that she will have to adjust her monetary policy based on what Congress and President Trump ultimately decide to do
  • That’s what’s scaring the bond markets, because what Yellen is saying, is that
  • If Congress and  Trump want to step on the gas, she’s going to have to tap on the breaks
  • To prevent this thing from overheating, meaning that with unemployment already so low
  • Any stimulus now, risks making inflation too high
  • Meaning that the Fed would have to act to rein it in
  • Even though she still suggests that the pace of rate hikes will be slow
  • She’s implying that the pace will pick up if need be to offset the stimulus effects of tax cuts and spending increases
  • And that is what is rattling the credit markets
  • But what Janet Yellen or nobody else seems to understand is that any significant rise in long-term interest rates will crush this bubble economy