- Today was the expected day for expected rate hikes, indicating economic “lift-off”
- The June rate hike is off the table and everyone is focusing attention on September
- The prepared remarks are just a smokescreen to maintain the pretense that the economy can withstand a rate hike
- The Q&A session after the the prepared remarks were more revealing
- Janet Yellen ducked the question of why people who recommend postponing the rate hike to 2016 are wrong
- Yellen stated that the “dots” used to forecast rates are based on mere projections
- The FOMC is always too optimistic about the economy, so if they are wrong again, the dots are meaningless
- Yellen tacitly admits she is hiding behind the data, stating that even if rates to rise, it will be a nominal amount
- Yellen’s response to CNBC’s Steve Liesman question regarding what labor milestone would justify a rate hike was especially telling
- She said she needs to see further improvement in the Labor Market before she begins to raise rates
- How much improvement does Yellen expect in the labor market over the next three months?
- There is a good chance that the labor market will not be as strong in the next three months
- She is letting the cat out of the bag; saying that rate hike is not likely in September, either
- Yellen questioned the “obsession” about when rate hikes start because the first rate hike will not necessarily indicate normalization
- She is indicating that a rate hike may be symbolic
- The highly stimulative rate of zero to .25 is only necessary when trying to sustain a bubble
- In response to a question about the Federal Reserve under Greenspan, Yellen indicated that it was a mistake for him to raise rates slowly and methodically
- I was vocal Greenspan’s decisions at that time, arguing that his actions were creating the real estate bubble
- Yellen is now moving interest rates even more slowly over a period of 7 years
- I may not be the only person who noticed how dovish Yellen’s statements are
- The knee-jerk reaction on the Fed’s statement was to buy the dollar, but quickly turned into a selloff, and it intensified during the Q&A session
- The dollar was on the lows of the day as it gets closer to the time rates were expected to raise
- My video blogs are always available on schiffradio.com and on YouTube
Podcast: Download
