- Today U.S. stocks extended their losing streak to 9 consecutive days
- We haven’t had a losing streak this long since 1980 – that was 36 years ago
- 8 consecutive down days last took place in the financial crisis year of 2008, so we had tied that yesterday
- Now we one-bettered it and we’re back to the longest streak since 1980
- The record for consecutive down days is 12
- The last time that happened was in 1966
- And if you don’t know what the significance was of 1966 – that was the peak of the bull market
- And the bear market that ensued went on for 16 years in nominal terms and much longer than that in real terms
- The Dow hit 1,000 in 1966 and it didn’t get above 1,000 until 1982!
- Of course, adjusted for inflation, 1,000 in 1982 wasn’t even close to 1,000 in 1966
- Certainly in terms of gold; gold was $35/oz. in 1966 and in 1982 it was probably about $500
- In terms of gold, the Dow was slaughtered during those 16 years
- Even adjusted for the CPI, I don’t think we got back to 1,000 until toward the end of the 1990’s stock market bubble
- We’ll see – we may well be down on Monday, so that would make it 10, and if we’re down on Tuesday, 11
- And if Trump wins, then we’ll probably be down on Wednesday, so we’ll see if we can set this rather dubious record
- Gold, on the other hand was going in the opposite direction
- It managed to finish the week with a small gain, but nonetheless closing above $1300
- Closing out the week at $1304, that’s the highest weekly close in some time
- Silver also eked out a small gain of 8¢, at 18.41
- The dollar continued its losing streak of late, with the dollar index closing below .97 with a .96 handle – 96.89
- As stocks are weakening, so is the dollar, and gold is strengthening
- What does this portend for the presidential election?
- Typically, when the incumbent party wins, which in this case would be Hillary, the stock market rises prior to the election
- Normally, when the stock market is falling, it’s an indication that they are going to oust the incumbent party
- Based on the stock market, one might think Trump is heading for an upset win
- Is the stock market falling because it is worried about a Trump presidency, or is it simply falling because it doesn’t matter?
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