A Change of Trend

Another volatile day of trading ended with the Dow gaining a little over 300 points – 330 points to be exact.  The NASDAQ composite was up just shy of 100 points – 97.33 – and the S&P gained 38.5 points.  But about 2 hours before the close, the Dow was down over 500.  And then, in about 20 minutes, it rallied from down 500 to positive, and then at the close it had that 300-point rally. But it started the day up about 200 points, so between up 200, down 500, up 300… Again, we’re continuing massive volatility which, as I said is indicative of a change of trend.  We were so long in an uptrend with no volatility, now all of sudden we have this massive volatility.

“Just a Reversal”

Of course there are a lot of people jumping on this:”Oh, it’s a reversal, it’s a bottom, we rallied 800 points” Look, that’s not how you make a bottom.  800 points is nothing. We had 2 thousand point drops, so I don’t think the bottom is in. Is it possible that there will be a rally off of here? Of course, anything is possible, but I don’t think it is probable.  I think it is a higher probability that we are going to re-test that low.  If this really is a correction, and not a bear market, I think the low that we put in earlier today is going to have to hold.  It is going to have to have some kind of test.

Fundamentals Look Much More Like a Bear Market

But, again, looking at the fundamentals, this looks so much more like a bear market.  In fact, when you listen to the talking heads on CNBC, they keep saying, “Relax, don’t worry… this is a correction… the market is long overdue for a correction… we haven’t had a correction in a long time…corrections are normal,  and all that is true. But we also haven’t had a bear market in a long time, and bear markets happen. Bear markets are normal. So how do they know that what we’re having now is not the long-overdue bear market?