- The official probability of a December rate hike continues to diminish over the last several days
- The markets had the rate hike at about a 70% probability; now we’re down to about 60%
- Personally, I think the odds are closer to zero, and over time, as we get closer and closer to that December meeting, the odds will steadily move down
- Just like the Atlanta Fed keeps moving down its estimates for Q3 GDP; most recently down to 1.9%
- I expect the Atlanta Fed to move lower again this week on more weak economic data
- As the potential for a rate hike diminishes, gold’s appeal improving, gold prices now back above $1260 today
- We’ve had a couple of back to back strong days in the gold sector
- Maybe the catalyst for the recent correction in the price of gold was the renewed expectation of a November and now December rate hike
- As those expectations are realistically dialed back, you’ll see more money moving into the metals
- The dollar, though, continues to trade firm
- It’s not moving higher, but it’s not really surrendering much of its gains
- Maybe some of this has to do with weakness particularly in the pound
- Why is the pound so weak?
- The Bank of England was very forthright, they wasted no time in warning voters not to vote for Brexit as it would be a disaster for the British economy
- Well, sure enough, the people voted for Brexit, and so now, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy
- The central bankers in Britain had convinced themselves that the economy would require stimulus, and therefore announced an increase in their QE program
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