Schiff Report Archives



  • Blind Herd

    The Herd Can Be Blind

    Below please find the latest commentary from Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and author of The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy. Please feel free to excerpt or repost with proper attribution and all links included. Click here to signup for both of Peter Schiff’s Free Newsletters. Going into 2015 the economic outlook held by the U.S. investment establishment could not have been […]
    Bravado of Borrowers

    The Bravado of Borrowers

    Last week a scene unfolded in Athens, largely unnoticed by American eyes, that provided all the visual and metaphorical symbols needed to define the current state of the global economy. Hollywood’s best screenwriters couldn’t have laid it out any better. Tiring of being told by self-righteous foreigners to pay for past borrowing with current austerity, […]
    Central Bank White Flag

    Switzerland Wins As Its Central Bank Surrenders

    If anyone had any doubt how severely the global economy has been distorted by the actions of central bankers, the “surprise” announcement last week by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to no longer peg the Swiss franc to the euro should provide a moment of crystal clarity. The decision sent the franc up almost 30% […]
    Swiss Franc

    Swiss Surrender Wins Currency War

    Below, please find a short statement from Peter Schiff, CEO & Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital. Feel free to excerpt. To speak with Mr. Schiff directly about anything in this statement, please contact [email protected] By ending its three year currency peg to the weakening euro Switzerland has become the first major economy to […]
    Good-Bad

    Hurts So Good: When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad?

    The sudden fall in the price of oil provides a unique opportunity to examine the widely held belief that deflation is economic poison. As many governments and central banks have vowed to fight deflation at all costs in 2015, the question could hardly be more significant. While falling prices may strike the layman as cause […]
    Energy Bust

    Could an Energy Bust Trigger QE4?

    In a normal economic times falling energy costs would be considered unadulterated good news. The facts are simple. No one buys a barrel of oil to display above the mantle. No one derives happiness from a lump of coal. Energy is simply a means to do or get the things that we want. We use […]
    Stretches "Considerable" Considerably

    Fed Statement Stretches “Considerable” Considerably

    Apparently Bill Clinton, the man who helped us ponder what the meaning of “is” is, now writes statements for the Federal Reserve. With the economic statistics apparently painting a rosy economic picture (In my opinion: ignoring the more numerous data points evidencing the opposite), I feel the majority of observers believed that the Fed would finally […]
    Black Gold Loses Glitter

    Black Gold Loses Glitter

    The stunning 40% drop in the price of oil over the past few months has scrambled global economic forecasts, changed the geo-political landscape, and has severely pressured many energy sector investments. Economists are scratching their heads to determine if the drop is good or bad for the economy or whether cheap oil will add to […]
    Driven Data

    Data Driven or Driven Data

    There can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it’s much easier […]
    Asset Bubbles

    Fed Yearns for Higher Inflation to Disguise Asset Bubbles

    On December 3, 2014, a contributed article by Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and author of The Real Crash – America’s Coming Bankruptcy, ran in the Washington Times. The piece sheds important light on how the Federal Reserve’s attitude regarding sub 2% inflation has changed significantly over the years. He makes the case […]
    PP-11-24-14

    The Clock is Ticking in Switzerland

    For most of my career in international investing, I had always placed a great deal of faith in Switzerland’s financial markets. In recent years, however, as the Swiss government has sought to hitch its wagon to the flailing euro currency and kowtow increasingly to U.S.-based financial requirements, this faith has been shaken. But this week […]
    Abenomics

    The Abenomics Death Spiral

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 11/19/2014 at 9:53 AM As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan’s economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few […]
    Contemplating Stocks without QE

    Contemplating Stocks without QE

    Some influences on the stock market are casual, subtle or open to interpretation, but the catalyst behind the current stock market rally really shouldn’t be controversial. As far as stocks go, we have lived by QE. The only question now is, whether we will die without it. A larger version of this article appears in […]
    It's The Economy

    It’s The Economy, and They’re Not Stupid

    The sharp rebuke to the Obama administration delivered by the mid-term elections should not be construed as an endorsement of the GOP, which remains as unpopular as ever. Rather, as has been the case in the last few election cycles, voter revolts have hinged on continued dissatisfaction with the strength of the economy and the […]
    Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don’t

    Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don’t

    In an article in the UK’s Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea. While politicians, CEOs and economists talk about demand stimulus and the avoidance of a deflationary trap, Evans-Pritchard reminds us that inflation is all, […]
    SchiffGold

    The Sound Money Business: Four Years Past and Future Forecast

    By Peter Schiff Yesterday, I launched a new website and announced the rebranding of my gold bullion dealer from Euro Pacific Precious Metals to SchiffGold. I started this company four years ago to provide a trustworthy option for my Euro Pacific Capital brokerage clients, but it has since grown to become a major US gold […]
    Economic Atonement

    Economic Atonement

    This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated […]
    A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal

    A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal

    While many economists and market watchers have failed to notice, we have entered a new chapter in the short and checkered history of central banking. This paradigm shift, as yet unaddressed in the textbooks, changes the basic policy tools that have traditionally defined the sphere of macroeconomic decision-making. The job of a central banker is […]
    Doubling Down on Inflation

    Doubling Down on Inflation

      Posted by Peter Schiff on 09/10/2014 at 1:39 PM Friday’s release of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice. Instead the alarm clock was stuffed under the pillow and Wall Street kept sleeping. The miss was so epic in fact (the 142,000 jobs […]
    Despite Growing Risks it’s Still Janet Yellen’s Market

    Despite Growing Risks it’s Still Janet Yellen’s Market

    The current stock market is earning a deserved reputation as being coated in Teflon. Bad or disappointing news just doesn’t appear to stick, and has done nothing to slow the market’s upward trajectory. Bad news is good and good news is good news. But where does this all end? A minority of investors have begun […]
    Neighborhood Bully – America Recklessly Throws its Weight Around

    Neighborhood Bully – America Recklessly Throws its Weight Around

    On June 30, U.S. authorities announced a stunning $9 billion fine on French bank BNP Paribas for violations of financial sanctions laws that the United States had imposed on Iran, Sudan and Cuba. In essence, BNP had surreptitiously conducted business with countries that the United States had sought to isolate diplomatically (sometimes unilaterally in the […]
    The Kingdom of Moltz

    “The Kingdom of Moltz” Autographed Commemorative Book

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 08/06/2014 at 5:12 PM During my Senate campaign, I gave away some of my dad’s books to my supporters, and one that I really liked as a kid was “The Kingdom of Moltz”.The book was originally a chapter in my father’s book, “The Biggest Con”. The story was a fable, much like “How an Economy […]
    Inflation Trumps Growth

    Inflation Trumps Growth

    Posted by Jim Nelson and Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Asset Management on 08/04/2014 at 7:31 AM With the first half of 2014 now in the books, many investors are happy with the performance thus far, especially given the economic headwinds that few saw coming. The 26% rally in U.S. stocks in 2013 gave way to a more modest 7% gain […]
    Summer 2014 Euro Pacific Capital Newsletter

    Summer 2014 Euro Pacific Capital Newsletter Summer

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 07/28/2014 at 12:13 PM Welcome to the Summer 2014 edition of Euro Pacific Capital’s The Global Investor Newsletter. Our investment consultants are standing by to answer any questions you have.  Call (800) 727-7922 today! First Half Performance Review – Inflation Trumps Grwoth By: Jim Nelson, Director of Euro Pacific Asset Management Neighborhood Bully – America Recklessly Throws […]
    Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before

    Yellen: Where No Man Has Gone Before

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 07/25/2014 at 10:38 AM  Although Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said nothing new in her carefully manicured semi-annual testimony to Congress last week, her performance there, taken within the context of a lengthy profile in the New Yorker (that came to press at around the same time), should confirm that she is very different from any […]
    Draghi Hits Savers To Salvage Faux Recovery

    Draghi Hits Savers To Salvage Faux Recovery

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 06/18/2014 at 2:20 PM On June 5th, Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), announced a package of measures, including a policy of negative interest rates, aimed at encouraging or even forcing Eurozone banks to increase their lending to businesses.Although previously imposed by Swiss banks on their depositors, this will be the first […]
    Irwin Schiff

    Irwin Schiff’s Motion to the Supreme Court

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 06/16/2014 at 1:00 PM My father makes a powerful case that the IRS has been collecting the income tax in violation of law, multiple Supreme Court decisions, and the U.S. Constitution.    At the very least his efforts provide compelling evidence of the sincerity with which he holds his beliefs and that his conduct was […]
    Debt is No Salvation

    Debt is No Salvation

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 06/13/2014 at 6:40 AM Thus far 2014 has been a fertile year for really stupid economic ideas. But of all the half-baked doozies that have come down the pike (the perils of “lowflation,” Thomas Piketty’s claims about capitalism creating poverty, and President Obama’s “pay as you earn” solution to student debt), an idea hatched last […]
    Statism

    Is Inequality Caused by Capitalism or Statism?

    The French economist Thomas Piketty has achieved worldwide fame by promoting a thesis that capitalism is the cause of growing economic inequality. Unfortunately, he is partially right. However, the important distinction missed by Piketty and all of his supporters is that state capitalism, not free market capitalism, has reigned supreme in recent decades in the world’s […]
    Snow Job

    Snow Job

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 06/06/2014 at 11:08 AM Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic […]
    Platinum Supply Shock

    The Platinum Supply Shock

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 06/05/2014 at 9:44 AM Even investors who typically eschew precious metals have been hard-pressed to ignore the platinum industry this year. The longest strike in South African history paired with surging Asian demand is set to push the metal back into a physical deficit in 2014 – and could have repercussions for years to come. […]
    Bond Trap

    The Bond Trap

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 06/23/2014 at 8:13 AM The American financial establishment has an incredible ability to celebrate the inconsequential while ignoring the vital. Last week, while the Wall Street Journal pondered how the Fed may set interest rates three to four years in the future (an exercise that David Stockman rightly compared to debating how many angels could dance on […]
    Thomas Piketty

    Piketty’s Envy Problem

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 05/29/2014 at 8:54 AM There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty’s new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally. In fact, the Piketty phenomenon (the economic equivalent to Beatlemania) has in some ways become a bigger story than the ideas themselves. However, the book’s popularity is not at all surprising […]
    See No Evil

    See No Evil

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 05/23/2014 at 11:51 AM In this week’s release of the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come. In order to make such a bold statement, Fed economists not only had to ignore the current data, but discount […]
    The Belgian Connection

    The Belgian Connection

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 05/19/2014 at 3:52 PM One of the biggest questions at the end of 2013 was how the Treasury market would react to the reduction of bond buying that would result from the Federal Reserve’s tapering campaign. If the Fed were to hold course to its stated intentions, its $45 billion monthly purchases of Treasury bonds […]
    Schiff Radio

    And the Band Played On

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 05/06/2014 at 2:09 PM After three months of consistently disappointing jobs numbers, the markets were as keyed up for a good jobs report as a long suffering sailor awaiting shore leave in a tropical port. The just released April jobs report, which claimed that 288,000 jobs were created in the U.S. during the month, provided […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Gold Price Is Fixed. So What?

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 05/01/2014 at 12:37 PM We can’t ignore it anymore – the markets are rigged. The LIBOR scandal broke almost two years ago, and the banks found responsible for manipulating that key index are still dealing with lawsuits. Meanwhile, allegations of gold market manipulation have been simmering for over a decade and grew into an inferno after […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Debate Debate

    While there is wide agreement that the cost of college education has risen far faster than the incomes of most Americans, there is some debate as to whether the quality of the product has kept pace with the price. Not surprisingly, almost all who argue that it has (college administrators, professors, and populist politicians) are […]
    Schiff Radio

    Meet “Lowflation”: Deflation’s Scary Pal

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 04/04/2014 at 2:11 PM In recent years a good part of the monetary debate has become a simple war of words, with much of the conflict focused on the definition for the word “inflation.” Whereas economists up until the 1960’s or 1970’s mostly defined inflation as an expansion of the money supply, the vast majority […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Stealth Rally: Gold Under The Radar

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 04/02/2014 at 2:48 PM So far, 2014 has been a paradoxical year for gold. Many investors aren’t even aware that it has rallied almost 8%. On the rare occasion that the financial media mentions the yellow metal, it is only in the context of comparing the recent rise to last year’s decline. In spite of […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Debate Debate

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 04/29/2014 at 11:39 AM While there is wide agreement that the cost of college education has risen far faster than the incomes of most Americans, there is some debate as to whether the quality of the product has kept pace with the price. Not surprisingly, almost all who argue that it has (college administrators, professors, […]
    Schiff Radio

    Debt And Taxes

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 03/21/2014 at 12:54 PM The red flags contained in the national and global headlines that have come out thus far in 2014 should have spooked investors and economic forecasters. Instead the markets have barely noticed. It seems that the majority opinion on Wall Street and Washington is that we have entered an era of good […]
    Schiff Radio

    Japanese Fallout May Hit Treasuries

    March 18, 2011 at 12:50 PM Japan is facing two meltdowns in the wake of its devastating earthquake. The first, and more critical, is the meltdown at the Fukushima I Nuclear Plant, 150 miles north of Tokyo. Surely, this is the greater near-term threat. But long-term, another threat looms, having to do with the Japanese […]
    Schiff Radio

    Weather Or Not

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 03/07/2014 at 5:45 PM Everyone agrees that the winter just now winding down (hopefully) has been brutal for most Americans. And while it’s easy to conclude that the Polar Vortex has been responsible for an excess of school shutdowns and ice related traffic snarls, it’s much harder to conclude that the it’s responsible for the […]
    Schiff Radio

    Gold Scams Revisited

    Before Bear Stearns and Lehman collapsed, the market for physical gold was limited to a relatively small group of investors who understood the havoc inflation was wreaking on our savings and the US markets. As the financial crisis took hold, a flood of new and inexperienced buyers entered the market, creating an opportunity for unscrupulous […]
    Schiff Radio

    WhatsApp With That?

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 02/21/2014 at 10:41 AM Two pieces of business news announced this week provide a convenient frame through which to view our dysfunctional and distorted economy. The first (which has attracted tremendous attention), is Facebook’s blockbuster $19 billion acquisition of instant messaging provider WhatsApp. The second (which few have noticed) is the horrific earnings report issued […]
    Schiff Radio

    Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways

    In our current age of spin and counter-spin, there is no contortion too great for a politician to attempt. On occasion, however, the threads of one story become entangled with another in a manner that should deeply embarrass, if the media were sharp enough to catch it. This happened last week in response to the […]
    Schiff Radio

    EXCLUSIVE: Viacom Lawyers on Behalf of The Daily Show

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 02/11/2014 at 2:47 PM Lawyers for Viacom, on behalf of “The Daily Show,” have verbally refused to either make the unedited footage of my interview available, or to release it to me for fair use.   They have also refused to put that refusal in writing, as they do not want me making it available to […]
    Schiff Radio

    Dark Gold: Shedding Light On A Mysterious Market

    Gold is the simplest of financial assets – you either own it or you don’t. Yet, at the same time, gold is also among the most private of assets. Once an individual locks his or her safe, that gold effectively disappears from the market at large. Unlike bank deposits or stocks, there is no way […]
    Schiff Radio

    EXCLUSIVE: How “The Daily Show” Lies

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 02/03/2014 at 1:33 PM Everyone keeps asking why I would agree to be interviewed by “The Daily Show,” knowing well the program’s poor reputation for journalistic integrity. I’ll tell you why. Take a look at the written assurance the show’s producers sent me before I agreed to anything. From: [redacted] [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, December 12, […]
    Schiff Radio

    "The Daily Show": A Call To Action

    After watching “The Daily Show” segment for the first time since it aired, I realized it was an even bigger hit job than I first realized. Jon Stewart’s staff constructed my sentence like Dr. Frankenstein pieced together his monster.   The segment shows Samantha Bee asking a question or making a statement, but then uses […]
    Schiff Radio

    After Bernanke, more turbulence: Opposing view

    The idea that Ben Bernanke deserves credit for saving the nation from an economic catastrophe omits two possibilities: that we haven’t really recovered from anything, and that his policies have laid the foundation for even bigger problems ahead. The actions taken by the Bernanke Fed have no precedent, and he has admitted to flying blind. […]
    Schiff Radio

    ‘The Daily Show': Intellectually Dishonest about the Intellectually Disabled

    When I accepted “The Daily Show”’s invitation to be interviewed about my opposition to a minimum wage increase, I knew that I was walking into a trap. But given how counterproductive I know  such an increase would be to those the law proposes to help, I took the risk anyway. Of the more than four hours […]
    Schiff Radio

    Surviving Austerity

    This article is taken from the Winter 2014 EPC Global Investor Newsletter. With the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having posted a 30% gain, it’s easy to assume that U.S. stocks easily led the world in 2013. (There is more on what is behind this rally in the latest version of the Euro Pacific Capital […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Deflation Menace

    The article below was taken from the January edition of Euro Pacific Capital’s Global Investor. Dedicated readers of The Wall Street Journal have recently been offered many dire warnings about a clear and present danger that is stalking the global economy. They are not referring to a possible looming stock or real estate bubble (which […]
    Schiff Radio

    Too Big To Pop

    Most economic observers are predicting that 2014 will be the year in which the United States finally shrugs off the persistent malaise of the Great Recession. As we embark on this sunny new chapter, we may ask what wisdom the five-year trauma has delivered. Some big thinkers have declared that the episode has forever tarnished […]
    Schiff Radio

    WAS 2011 THE END OF THE GOLD RUSH?

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 01/04/2012 at 4:28 PM For such a wonderful year for precious metals investors, the final calendar quarter left little to celebrate. Just as people now take for granted that their phones will also take pictures, play music, and surf the internet, many investors have come to expect gold and silver to move up in a […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Long And The Short Of Gold Investing

    There are two types of gold investors: those trying to make money on short-term market timing and those looking for long-term asset preservation. It was the fear-driven trading of the former that helped gold break $1900 in 2011, and for good reason – stormy markets steer investors to safe havens. But gold’s fortune has shifted […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Left’s Inquisition Descends

    While most Americans spent the last few days peacefully celebrating the holidays with their families, hundreds if not thousands of people I’ve never met threatened me with bodily harm, attacked members of my family, issued death threats, described various diseases they hope I would fall victim to, and attacked me based on my Jewish religion.  […]
    Schiff Radio

    A Spoonful of Sugar

    The press has framed Ben Bernanke’s valedictory press conference last week in heroic terms. It’s as if a veteran quarterback engineered a stunning come-from-behind drive in his final game, and graciously bowed out of the game with the ball sitting on the opponent’s one-yard line. In reality, Bernanke has merely completed a five-yard pass from […]
    Schiff Radio

    They Bravely Chickened Out

    Earlier this week Congress tried to show that it is capable of tackling our chronic and dangerous debt problems. Despite the great fanfare I believe they have accomplished almost nothing. Supporters say that the budget truce created by Republican Representative Paul Ryan and Democratic Senator Patty Murray will provide the economy with badly needed certainty. […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Eastern Lust For Gold

    Having replaced savings with debt on both the national and individual levels, I think it’s well past time for Westerners to take a few lessons from our creditors in the East. Many Americans consider gold a “barbarous relic,” but in Asia, the yellow metal remains the bedrock of individual savings plans. This means that either […]
    Schiff Radio

    Ben’s Rocket to Nowhere

    Herd mentality can be as frustrating as it is inexplicable. Once a crowd starts moving, momentum can be all that matters and clear signs and warnings are often totally ignored. Financial markets are currently following this pattern with respect to the unshakable belief that the Federal Reserve is ready, willing, and most importantly, able, to immediately […]
    Schiff Radio

    Janet Yellen’s Mission Impossible

    Most market watchers expect that Janet Yellen will grapple with two major tasks once she takes the helm at the Federal Reserve in 2014: deciding on the appropriate timing and intensity of the Fed’s quantitative easing taper strategy, and unwinding the Fed’s enormous $4 trillion balance sheet (without creating huge losses in the value of […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Website is Fixable, Obamacare Isn’t

    Since Obamacare made its debut, discussions have focused on Ted Cruz’ efforts to defund the law and the shockingly bad functionality of the Website itself. Fortunately for Obama, polling indicates that Senator Cruz has lost, at least for now, the battle for hearts and minds. The President has not been nearly so lucky on the […]
    Schiff Radio

    Irwin Schiff’s Appeal – Letter Writing Campaign

    Irwin Schiff’s appeal is currently being considered by the Federal 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco. After eight long years in prison, it’s time for him to get out. You can make your voice heard by sending a letter to the judges of the 9th Circuit reminding them of an important element in […]
    Schiff Radio

    A Green Light for Gold?

    It is rare that investors are given a road map. It is rarer still that the vast majority of those who get it are unable to understand the clear signs and directions it contains. When this happens the few who can actually read the map find themselves in an enviable position. Such is currently the […]
    Schiff Radio

    Debt Ceiling Delusions

    The popular take on the current debt ceiling stand-off is that the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party has a delusional belief that it can hit the brakes on new debt creation without bringing on an economic catastrophe. While Republicans are indeed kidding themselves if they believe that their actions will not unleash deep economic […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Taper Fakeout

    Anyone who bought the media buzz about a September reduction of QE – called the “taper” – was very surprised when the Federal Reserve announced that stimulus would continue unabated. According the the official narrative, inflation is under control and the labor market is steadily improving. Why wouldn’t a modest taper be announced? The reality […]
    Schiff Radio

    Peter Schiff Was Right – Taper Edition

    This video below was compiled from interviews with Peter Schiff over the last few weeks. Mr. Schiff first caught the public attention in 2008 with a similar video regarding his ultimately accurate predictions about the housing and financial crises. Over the last few weeks, as the overwhelming majority of economists, reporters, and Wall Street insiders […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Taper That Wasn’t

    The Fed’s failure today to announce some sort of tapering of its QE program, despite the consensus of an overwhelming percentage of economists who expected action, once again reveals the degree to which mainstream analysts have overestimated the strength of our current economy. The Fed understands, as the market seems not to, that the current […]
    Schiff Radio

    Off To The Races

    Summer is traditionally a slow season for precious metals, but this summer started with a rout. In the last week of June, gold and silver hit 2-year lows of $1,192 and $18.61 respectively. Fortunately, after staggering along the lows, the precious metals are off to the races once more – with gold rallying more than […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Unfriendly Skies

    As if the federal government were not already doing enough to kill the U.S. airline industry with restrictive workplace rules, over-regulation, and a monetary policy that supports higher fuel prices, earlier this month anti-trust authorities at the Justice Department blocked the merger between American Airlines and US Air. (Unbelievably, the regulatory roadblock was thrown up […]
    Schiff Radio

    The GDP Distractor

    Albert Einstein, a man who knew a thing or two about celestial mechanics, supposedly once called compound interest “the most powerful force in the universe.” While the remark was likely meant to be funny (astrophysicists can be hilarious), it sheds light on the often overlooked fact that small changes, over time, can yield enormous results. Over […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Half Full Economy

    The marginal economic strength that was described in the most recent GDP release from Washington has caused many to double down on their belief that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering Quantitative Easing sometime later this year. While I believe that is a fantasy given our economy’s extreme dependence on QE, market observers should have […]
    Schiff Radio

    What Doesn’t Kill Gold Makes It Stronger

    I’ve been emphasizing for months that the current correction in the gold price is a result of speculative money fleeing the market and not any reflection of gold’s long-term fundamentals. Unfortunately, there is so much money to be made (and lost) by day trading that my cautions have once again fallen on deaf ears. Well, […]
    Schiff Radio

    Detroit Broke City

    It should come as no surprise that the lessons that should be learned from the bankruptcy of Detroit, a city that once stood as the shining example of America’s industrial might, are being ignored by the American political establishment and its allies in the docile press corps. While the death spiral of the Motor City […]
    Schiff Radio

    Print the Legend

    The Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman tragedy has become one of those transcendent events that dominates the national discourse and throws light on dimly lit aspects of our society. Obviously, the case touches most closely on issues of race relations, media culture, and the politicization of the justice system. It also reveals how preconceived emotional commitments to a […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Fiat-Free Festival

    June marks the beginning of summer – a season of beach vacations, garden bounties, and general disinterest in the market. It is well-known that precious metals and other commodities typically face malaise at this time of year as speculators unwind their trades and potential buyers spend their spare cash on hotel rooms and recreation. But […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Golden Cycle

    The New York Times had the definitive take on the vicious sell off in gold. To summarize one of their articles: Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in […]
    Schiff Radio

    Sock Puppet Kabuki; Nikkei Today Parallels Dot-Com Bust

    The Japanese stereotype of excessive courtesy is being confirmed by the actions of prime minster Shinzo Abe who is giving the world a free and timely lesson on the dangers of overly accommodative monetary policy. Whether or not we benefit from the tutorial (Japan will surely not) depends on our ability to understand what is […]
    Schiff Radio

    Tapering The Taper Talk

    As usual the Federal Reserve media reaction machine has fallen for a poorly executed head fake. It has fallen for this move many times in the past, and for its efforts, it has tackled nothing but air. Yet right on cue, it took the bait once more. Somehow the takeaway from Wednesday‘s release of the June […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Great Reflation

    This week economists, investors and politicians were treated to some of the “best” home price data since the frothy days of 2006 when home loans were given out like cotton candy and condo flipping was a national pastime. The Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home price index was up a startling 10.9% for the 12 month […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Biggest Loser Wins

    While the world’s economies jockey one another for the lead in the currency devaluation derby, it’s worth considering the value of the prize they are seeking. They believe a weak currency opens the door to trade dominance, by allowing manufacturers to undercut foreign rivals, and to economic growth, by fighting deflation. On the other side […]
    Schiff Radio

    Symptoms Don’t Lie

    A good doctor will not simply make a diagnosis based on measurements. The symptoms and complaints expressed by the patient are at least as important in making a determination as the data provided by diagnostic tools. When the data says one thing and the symptoms continuously say another, it makes sense to question the reliability […]
    Schiff Radio

    Changing the Conversation

    Don Draper, Mad Men’s master advertiser likes to say “when you don’t like what they are saying, change the conversation.”  When it comes to the current economic weakness, which was confirmed again today by the release of lower than expected GDP data, Washington would love do just that. Fortunately for them, they consistently outdo the master minds […]
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    Japan Steps into the Void

    In the years following the global financial crisis, economists and investors have gotten very comfortable with very high, and seemingly persistent, government debt. The nonchalance may be underpinned by the assumption that globally significant countries that can print their own currencies can’t get trapped in a sovereign debt crisis. However, it now appears that Japan is […]
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    Gold in the Crosshairs

    In the opening years of the last decade, most mainstream investors sat on the sidelines while “tin hat” goldbugs rode the bull market from below $300 to just over $1,000 per ounce. But following the 2008 financial crisis, when gold held up better than stocks during the decline and made new record highs long before the Dow […]
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    The Stockman Backlash

    This week, while economists should have been closely considering the implications of the actual bankruptcy of Stockton, California, they instead heaped scorn on the perceived ideological bankruptcy of David Stockman. In other words, Stockman trumped Stockton. Ronald Reagan’s former Budget Director contributed “Sundown in America” a multi-page opinion piece to the Sunday New York Times which loudly […]
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    Flying High on Borrowed Wings

    After selling off an astounding 56% between October of 2007 and March 2009, the S&P 500 has staged a rally for the ages, surging 120% and recovering all of its lost ground too. This stunning turnaround certainly qualifies as one of the more memorable, and unusual, stock market rallies in history. The problem is that the […]
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    The Stimulus Trap

    For years we have been warned by Keynesian economists to fear the so-called “liquidity trap,” an economic cul-de-sac that can suck down an economy like a tar pit swallowing a mastodon. They argue that economies grow because banks lend and consumers spend. But a “liquidity trap,” they argue, convinces consumers not to consume and businesses […]
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    Cyprus Lifts the Curtain

    This week financial analysts, economists, politicians, and bank depositors from around the world were outraged that European leaders, more specifically the Germans, currently calling many of the shots in Brussels and Frankfurt, could be so politically reckless, economically ignorant, and emotionally callous as to violate the sanctity of bank deposits in order to fund a […]
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    The Fed’s Tightening Pipe Dream

    Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the […]
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    The Pound Gets Pounded

    As the global currency war intensifies, the majority of attention has been paid to the 17% fall of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar over the past few months. The implosion has given cover to the sad performance of another once mighty currency: the British pound sterling. But in many ways the travails of the […]
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    Messing With The Bull

    With the announcement this week of its massive $5 billion lawsuit against ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, the Federal Government took a bold step to squelch any remaining independence of thought or action in the financial services industry. Given the circumstances and timing of the suit, can there be any doubt that S&P is paying […]
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    The Bernanke Shock

    The financial world was shocked this month by a demand from Germany’s Bundesbank to repatriate a large portion of its gold reserves held abroad. By 2020, Germany wants 50% of its total gold reserves back in Frankfurt – including 300 tons from the Federal Reserve. The Bundesbank’s announcement comes just three months after the Fed […]
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    The Biggest Loser

    In Switzerland, it’s not just the clocks that are cuckoo. Over the past four years Swiss politicians and central bankers have gone on an unprecedented buying spree of foreign exchange reserves. In 2012, their cache swelled to as much as $420 billion worth of various currencies, primarily the euro. This figure is a seven-fold increase […]
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    The Trillion Dollar Trick

    The birth, and the apparent death, of the trillion dollar platinum coin idea may one day be recalled as a mere footnote in the current debt crisis drama. The ultimate rejection of the idea (which was to use a loophole in commemorative coinage law to mint a platinum coin of any denomination) by both the […]
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    Inflation Propaganda Exposed

    Economists who hold the popular view that expanding the money supply will provide the best medicine for our ailing economy dismiss the inflationary concerns of monetary hawks, like me, by pointing to the supposedly low inflation that has occurred during the current period of rampant Fed activism. In a recent blog post aimed specifically at […]
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    Treasury’s Last Pillar Crumbles

    With the return of Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party to power in Japan, the market for US Treasuries may be losing its last external pillar of support. Re-elected on September 26th, Abe has quickly set a course for limitless inflation, saying Japan must “free itself from deflation and the strong yen.” This is significant […]
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    No Way Out

    By upping the ante once again in its gamble to revive the lethargic economy through monetary action, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is now compelling the rest of us to buy into a game that we may not be able to afford.  At his press conference this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained how the […]
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    Mish Shedlock Exposed

    In January 2009, just as the “Peter Schiff was Right” YouTube video that catalogued my previously derided predictions about a coming financial collapse was racking up views and attracting mainstream attention, a blogger and investment advisor named Mike Shedlock (aka “Mish”) saw an opportunity to make an unethical grab at my current and prospective clients by breaking […]
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    Ditching Before The Fiscal Cliff

    Turn on the TV and this is what you’ll hear: The US budget is heading for a fiscal cliff. If a deal isn’t reaching in Congress by the end of this year, a combination of automatic tax hikes and budget cuts will sink America into economic depression. There is no escape. Of course, my readers […]
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    Doing Away With Ceiling Drama

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner made news last week by proposing to transfer the Congressional prerogative to raise the debt ceiling to the President. The change would essentially do away with the meaningless debt ceiling debates that have become ritual kabuki in Washington over the past few generations. Most Republicans have dismissed the proposal as a […]
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    Patriotic Millionaires Unmasked

    Despite the breathless post-election “think pieces” that have drawn sweeping and deeply considered conclusions about the political drift of the country, at its core President Obama’s re-election is easy to understand. He essentially promised millions of middle and working class voters that if he were to be re-elected, they would receive benefits paid for by […]
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    Is a college degree worth the cost? You decide.

    President Obama promotes the myth that everyone must go to college. That if you don’t go, your life will be ruined — that you will end up waiting tables, or trapped in some other mundane occupation. The truth is, even with a college degree, you may still end up waiting tables, you’ll just begin your […]
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    Extend and Pretend

    Now that President Obama has been re-elected, the media is finally free to focus on something besides the clueless undecided voters in Ohio, Florida, and Colorado. The brightest and shiniest object that has attracted its attention is the “fiscal cliff” that we are expected to drive over at the end of the year unless Congress […]
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    When Infinite Inflation Isn’t Enough

    WHEN INFINITE INFLATION ISN’T ENOUGH  If no one seems to care that the Titanic is filling with water, why not drill another hole in it? That seems to be the M.O. of the Bernanke Federal Reserve. After the announcement of QE3 (also dubbed “QE Infinity”) created yet another round of media chatter about a recovery, the Fed’s […]
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    Lessons from Black Monday

    25 years ago, on another Monday in late October, the financial world seemed to disintegrate in a heartbeat. Though the 205 point drop in the Dow last Friday (the technical anniversary of the ’87 Crash) was somewhat reminiscent of its 108-point drop on Friday, October 16, 1987, the real action in ’87 was on the Monday […]
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    Inflation: Washington is Blind to Main Street’s Biggest Concern

    Journalists, politicians and economists all seem to agree that the biggest economic issue currently worrying voters is unemployment. It follows then that most believe that the deciding factor in the presidential race will be the ability of each candidate to convince the public that his policies will create jobs. It seems that everyone got this […]
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    Riding Into The Sunset or a Brick Wall?

    A month ago, I presented the case for why Fed Chairman Bernanke would have strong motivation to launch another round of quantitative easing (QE) before the election. In short, it would save him his job. Now, I didn’t predict with certainty that he would do so – only the few men at the FOMC knew […]
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    The Fed Plays All Its Cards

    There never really could be much doubt that the current experiment in competitive global currency debasement would end in anything less than a total war. There was always a chance that one or more of the principal players would snap out of it, change course and save their citizenry from a never ending cycle of […]
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    Operation Screw

    With yesterday’s Fed decision and press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke finally and decisively laid his cards on the table. And confirming what I have been saying for many years, all he was holding was more of the same snake oil and bluster. Going further than he has ever gone before, he made it clear that […]
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    The Fed’s Campaign

    This past Friday, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered his annual address from Jackson Hole – the State of the Dollar, if you will – I couldn’t help but hear it as an incumbent’s campaign speech. While Wall Street was hoping for some concrete announcement, what we got was a mushy appraisal of the Fed’s […]
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    Democrats: Let’s Ban Profits!

    Posing as an anti-business crusader, Peter Schiff found a number of DNC delegates and attendees who support explicitly outlawing profitability. We deliberately avoided speaking with the occupy protestors camping outside in tents to get a more “mainstream” Democratic perspective!
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    The QE Debate

    There is an ongoing three way debate between those who believe the Fed should do more to strengthen the recovery, those who believe that the recovery is strong enough to continue on its own, and those who believe that the economy has been so fundamentally altered by the recession that no amount of stimulus can […]
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    The Gold Standard Gets Another Look

    As Republicans convene in Tampa to nominate Mitt Romney and hammer out their party platform, one of the planks that could attract the most attention is the Party’s official position on the gold standard. As it is now being considered, the platform stops short of recommending a return to the gold standard, but does advocate […]
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    Romney’s Abortion Dilemma

      Lost amid the furor over Missouri Republican senatorial candidate Todd Akin’s controversial comments about rape and abortion are the inherent difficulties in staking out a pro-life position on abortion that allows for an exception for rape. As a pro-choice conservative, I am offered a perspective to see these internal flaws that threaten to set […]
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    Republicans Hope, but Don’t Change

    For much of the past few generations, the debate over balancing the federal budget has been a central feature of every presidential campaign. But over time, the goalposts have moved. As the amount of red ink has grown steadily larger, the suggested time frames to restore balance have gotten increasingly longer, while the suggested cuts […]
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    The Not So Super Hero

    The past week provided clear lessons not just in how central bankers have a limited ability to positively influence the economy but also how they are limited in their capacity to deliver the shortsighted policy actions that investors currently crave. The developments should provide new reasons for investors and economy watchers to abandon their faith […]
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    Priced For Collapse

    Where is the gold price today? If you’re like many Americans, you have no idea whether it went up, down, or sideways. Fortunately, I know my readers to be more informed – you likely know that after falling from almost $1900, gold has been trapped around $1600 since early May. But you may still be […]
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    Justice Roberts is Right: The Plan Won’t Work

    Now that the Supreme Court has given its narrow blessing to the Affordable Care Act, the big question is whether it will deliver the benefits that its proponents promise. Unfortunately, as it is now constructed, the plan will backfire causing fewer healthy people to buy insurance, raise premiums for those who do, destroy employment opportunities, cripple […]
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    The Real Fiscal Cliff

    The media is now fixated on an apparently new feature dominating the economic landscape: a “fiscal cliff” from which the United States will fall in January 2013. They see the danger arising from the simultaneous implementation of the $2 trillion in automatic spending cuts (spread over 10 years) agreed to in last year’s debt ceiling […]
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    Supreme Error

    In the wake of my last commentary on the horrendous Supreme Court decision upholding Obama’s health care plan, several people have pointed out that I erred in saying that the income tax is a “direct tax.” While it is technically correct that the Court ultimately declared it to be an excise, not a direct tax, […]
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    TAKE ACTION NOW!

    http://www.schiffradio.com/g/Sign-the-Petition!/259.html
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    Legal Gimmickry Rescues Obama

    Despite the celebrations among Democrats, yesterday a majority of Supreme Court justices ruled that the Constitution does not allow the government to force Americans to buy health insurance. However in providing the swing vote to uphold the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) Chief Justice John Roberts broke with the four other justices who shared that […]
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    Trickle Up Economics

     The political left wing has long tried to cast doubt on the fairness, and even the efficacy, of free market capitalism by branding it as a “trickle down” system.  This epithet is meant to show how the middle and lower classes are dependent on scraps of wealth that happen to fall from the buffet table […]
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    Out of Order

    While JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been credited for a confident and feisty performance today in front of Congress, he was careful to not criticize their efforts thus far to regulate the financial services industry. Given that JP Morgan has been on the receiving end of federal bailouts, this should not be surprising. Last […]
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    Damn the Torpedoes

    Last week in an interview on CBS Network News, Economist Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s, unwittingly revealed a central error of the global economic establishment. Zandi has made a career out of finding the middle ground between republican and democrat economic talking points. As a result of this skill, he has been rewarded […]
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    Economic Reality Bites

    Many people became convinced that data releases earlier this year indicated that “recovery” in the U.S. was imminent. But as I have been saying for months, this evidence would ultimately be shown to be as reliable as sightings of Bigfoot. Lots of people claim to say they have seen it, some even produce plaster footprints, […]
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    The Real Crash

    I first came to national attention back in 2008 and 2009 when the housing and credit markets imploded. I became known as the guy that other market “experts” laughed at when I warned of trouble brewing in the seemingly indestructible American economy. After the wheels ground to a halt in mid-2008, people noticed that my […]
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    Overseas Companies Are Worth A Look

    With uncertainty in Europe spooking investors away from any asset perceived as risky, many Americans have become wary of overseas equities. While the fear is understandable, it may be keeping us away from some of the world’s most promising economies.  I believe economic fundamentals are still the ultimate driver of investment performance, but it’s easy to […]
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    The Golden Rule Reinterpreted

     In an April speech in Berlin, Dr. Andreas Dombret, a member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank (the German central bank), offered a startlingly frank assessment of the current problems in Europe.  Although his comments were meant to apply to the tensions and imbalances that exist between the northern and southern tier of […]
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    France May be Losing it’s Head… Europe Soon to Follow?

    According to the European Central Bank, the Italian banking industry now holds more government debt than the banks of any of the major European economies: nearly €324 billions worth of shaky bonds. The Spanish banking sector is also heavily overweight in government paper, at a new record high of €263 billion.   This bond-buying spree was […]
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    Unprecedented Presidential Posturing

    Last week, responding to President Obama’s latest populist assault on the wealthy, I issued a commentary in which I explained why his ideas about American economic history were fundamentally flawed. As dangerous and erroneous as those views are, at least I can cut the President some slack for commenting on a subject in which he really has […]
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    Obama’s Pretzel Logic

    As this fall’s presidential election takes shape as a contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, the rhetoric out of both camps is becoming sharper and more ideological. Looking to exploit Governor Romney’s increasingly close association with Wisconsin representative Paul Ryan (who has been mentioned as a potential vice presidential nominee), the President dedicated a […]
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    Trade Rains on the Jobs Parade

    Earlier this month the Labor Department reported that 227,000 new jobs were added to the economy in February, marking the third consecutive month of positive jobs growth. Many observers took the news as evidence that the recovery has taken hold in earnest, helping send the S&P 500 index to the highest level in nearly five […]
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    Stress Tests No Sweat

    The Federal Reserve ran another “stress test” on major financial institutions and has determined that 15 of the 19 tested are safe, even in the most extreme circumstances: an unemployment rate of 13%, a 50% decline in stock prices, and a further 21% decline in housing prices. The problem is that the most important factor […]
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    Why Buy the Cow?

    The communist revolutions in the 20th century sought to nationalize the wealth generated by privately held industries back to the “exploited” workers on whose backs the profits were supposedly derived.America has made the rejection of this idea and its support of free market principles the centerpiece of its economic narrative. However, as a result of […]
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    No Easy Fix for Gas Prices

    This month, as unleaded gasoline prices increased for 17 consecutive days (to a national average of $3.647 per gallon – up 11% thus far this year) and West Texas Intermediate crude joined Brent crude in breaking through a $100 per barrel level, energy prices emerged as a full blown political issue. While President Obama conveniently […]
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    Keynesians Jump the Gun on Inflation

    Advocates of government stimulus are running victory laps on recent developments that appear to vindicate their strategy. In particular, Paul Krugman compares the sluggish growth in Europe to the somewhat-less-sluggish growth in the US to prove that stimulus was more effective than austerity. Other economists are using government inflation measures to defend Fed Chairman Bernanke’s […]
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    Waist Deep in the Big Muddy

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 01/27/2012 at 1:51 PM With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke has instead laid out a simple road […]
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    Please Write to Judge Voorhees – Free Bernard von NotHaus!

    Please Write to Judge Voorhees Dear Liberty Dollar Supporters!Now that I am simply waiting for my sentencing date, the time has come for your direct participation in the legal process that will help define your seized property, the future of the Liberty Dollar and possibly the rest of my life. I know you have been […]
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    The Dollar’s Lucky Streak

    Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that recession is returning. Not surprisingly then, the dollar is currently hitting a multi-year high […]
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    WAS 2011 THE END OF THE GOLD RUSH?

    For such a wonderful year for precious metals investors, the final calendar quarter left little to celebrate. Just as people now take for granted that their phones will also take pictures, play music, and surf the internet, many investors have come to expect gold and silver to move up in a straight line. In fact, […]
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    Obama Gets Real

    For most of his time as a national political figure, Barack Obama has been careful to cloak his core socialist leanings behind a veil of pro-capitalist rhetoric. This makes strategic sense, as Americans still largely identify as pro-capitalist. However, based on his recent speech in Osawatomie, Kansas, the President appears to have reassessed the political […]
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    The Great Western Crackup

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 12/02/2011 at 1:09 PM From World War II until very recently, the West – specifically Europe and the United States – was on a course for greater centralization, greater integration, and greater economic intervention. But this consensus is breaking down. In Europe, the euro has gone from steadily adding new members to now facing the […]
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    Whose Fuse is Shorter?

    With fiscal time bombs ticking in both Europe and the United States, the pertinent question for now seems to be which will explode first. For much of the past few months it looked as if Europe was set to blow. But Angela Merkel’s refusal to support a Federal Reserve style bailout of European sovereigns and […]
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    ANDREW SCHIFF: Spain’s Infrastructure Spending: A Flight to Nowhere

    Recently there’s been much talk about how infrastructure spending can be a viable solution to our country’s current economic woes. President Obama’s proposed $447 billion dollar jobs bill contains, among other things, investment in infrastructure projects like road construction. Many progressive economists have called for much more, with some even saying that the utility of […]
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    THE POLITICS OF GOLD INVESTMENT

    I think I know some lab mice that have received less examination than the 2012 Republican primary candidates. It seems with each passing cycle, the campaigning starts earlier, there are more debates, and the media frenzy gets more intense. Yet, with all the pyrotechnics and pageantry, it becomes difficult to figure out what these tricksters […]
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    In Defense of the 1%

    Last week, I spent the afternoon visiting the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations in lower Manhattan. I brought a film crew and a sign that said “I Am The 1%, Let’s Talk.” The purpose was to understand what was motivating these protesters and try to educate them about what caused the financial crisis. I went down there with the […]
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    President Obama Announces Plan to Boost College Tuitions

    President Obama today announced a plan that will ensure students are able to commit to higher levels of federally backed student loans. By limiting student obligations to repay, and by passing more of the repayment burden onto taxpayers, colleges and universities will be able to continue to raise tuitions at a rate that outpaces nearly every other […]
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    Herman Cain’s Hidden Nine

    By:  Peter Schiff Tuesday, October 18, 2011 Herman Cain has been gaining much traction with his 9-9-9 Plan, a bold proposal to replace our dysfunctional tax code with what could be a simpler, less invasive, and more economically stimulative alternative. While I don’t agree with the full spectrum of Mr. Cain’s policy choices, I applaud […]
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    Currency: The Hidden Portfolio Risk

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 10/03/2011 at 1:56 PM In today’s investment landscape, risk can come in all shapes and sizes. When structuring a stock portfolio most investors try to gauge the risk in buying particular stocks. Savvier investors also factor in sector risk, business cycle risk, and recession risk. Cautious investors may try to […]
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    Twist Paves the Way for QE III

    Earlier this week the Federal Reserve ignited a firestorm in the global markets by admitting that the U.S. economy is facing downside risks. Although it continues to sugar coat the unpleasant reality, never has such a stunningly obvious statement resulted in so much turmoil. Once again we are seeing the knee-jerk market reaction to seek […]
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    How the Government Can Create Jobs

    Testimony by Peter D. Schiff Offered to the House Sub-Committee on Government Reform and Stimulus Oversight September 13, 2011 Mr. Chairman, Mr. Ranking member, and all distinguished members of this panel. Thank you for inviting me here today to offer my opinions as to how the government can help the American economy recover from the […]
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    More of the Same

    Although it was labeled and hyped as a “jobs plan,” the new $447 billion initiative announced last night by President Obama is merely another government stimulus program in disguise. But semantics are of supreme importance in American politics…some could argue that word choice is the only thing that matters. As a result, despite the fact […]
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    The Last Haven Standing

    The markets are going through another sell-off phase, yet the traditional notions of a ‘safe haven’ are changing. No longer is the US dollar the default shelter; instead, gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen are the preferred assets.        All three of these havens – gold, francs, and yen – have […]
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    Job Killer in Chief

    This morning many on Wall Street were stunned by the big fat zero put up by the August jobs report, the worst showing in 11 months. The data convinced many previously optimistic economists that the United States will slip back into recession. I believe that we have been in one giant recession all along that […]
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    There They Go Again

    Picking up where they left off in 2008, the media is in the midst of a campaign to ignore and undermine the presidential candidacy of Ron Paul (they gave me even rougher treatment during my 2010 Senate run).  Political pundits just do not know what to do with a candidate who fails to fit into the […]
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    ANDREW SCHIFF: Political Theater

    Last night, in one of the stranger moments in recent international news, Seif al-Islam, son of apparently toppled Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, called a hasty press conference in Tripoli, hours after spokespeople of both the rebel coalition and the International Criminal Court announced he had been captured by opposing forces.   To the surprise of […]
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    Pentonomics – Krugman’s War Cry Won’t Avert Depression

    August 16, 2011 at 11:09 AM Paul Krugman sounded the war cry this Sunday on Fareed Zakaria’s program Global Public Square. After all, he asserted, only spending equivalent to another World War could lead us back to prosperity. That, and a healthy dose of inflation. Krugman argued that inflation would address our debt problem by […]
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    The Fix Is In

    August 12, 2011 at 3:47 PM This week’s wild actions on Wall Street should serve as a stark reminder that few investors have any clue as to what is really going on beneath the surface of America’s troubled economy. But this week did bring startling clarity on at least one front. In its August policy […]
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    ANDREW SCHIFF: The Center of Gravity Shifts Slowly

    August 5, 2011 at 4:39 PM To an extent not fully appreciated by the investing public, financial markets are influenced by human emotion just as much as they are by economic data, corporate earnings, and dividend yields. Of all human motivations, fear is perhaps the most powerful. When people get scared, the “fight or flight” […]
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    Pentonomics – Gold is the True Reserve Currency

    The reliance upon the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and “safe haven” asset has created a perverse, but deeply entrenched, mindset among global investors. In fact, many believe the major financial players have no alternatives to owning U.S. debt and dollars. They argue that the market for U.S. dollars and Treasuries is the […]
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    Debt Deal is a Blank Check

    August 1, 2011 at 3:27 PM By supposedly compromising to raise the debt ceiling, Congress and the President have now paved the way for ever higher levels of federal spending. Although, the nation was spared the trauma of borrowing restrictions, the actual risk of default existed solely in the minds of Washington politicians.  But the […]
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    Pentonomics – The Chinese Have Stopped Laughing

    Posted by Michael Pento on 07/29/2011 at 10:21 AM The economy continues to prove that it didn’t need a stalemate between democrats and republicans over whether or not we should expand our credit limit in order to poop the bed. Gross Domestic Product climbed a paltry 1.3% in the second quarter of this year following a severely downgraded Q1 print […]
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    Pentonomics – Debt Ceiling Myths

    Posted by Michael Pento on 07/22/2011 at 1:07 PM The debt ceiling debate that has dominated the headlines over the past month has been thoroughly infused with a string of unfortunate misconceptions and a number of blatant deceptions. As a result, the entire process has been mostly hot air. While a recitation of all the […]
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    Pentonomics – Selling Away Our Future

    Posted by Michael Pento on 07/19/2011 at 7:01 PM The U.S. trade deficit soared 15% month over month in May to $50.2 billion, which was the highest amount of red ink since October of 2008. Despite what some claim, we don’t have a diversified manufacturing base in this country and the percentage of our economy […]
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    It Ain’t Money If I Can’t Print It!

    July 15, 2011 at 10:21 AM I have been forecasting with near certainty that QE2 would not be the end of the Fed’s money-printing program. My suspicions were confirmed in both the Fed minutes on Tuesday and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to Congress yesterday. The former laid out the conditions upon which a […]
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    Don’t be Fooled by Political Posturing

    July 8, 2011 at 4:02 PM As attention focuses intently on the negotiations to raise the debt ceiling, House Republicans have made a great show of drawing a line in the fiscal sand. They claim that they will not vote for any deal that includes tax increases to narrow the budget deficit. But we all […]
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    Pentonomics – The Psychology of Bond Investors

    July 7, 2011 at 12:35 PM Those who take issue with the outlook of Austrian economists in general, and Euro Pacific Capital in particular, have pointed to the persistence of low bond yields as proof that our philosophy does not hold water. We argue that as the United States takes on ever more debt and […]
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    THE RISE OF THE BARTER ECONOMY

    July 5, 2011 at 1:00 PM Imagine a day when you go to buy a quart of milk, ask the price, and the cashier says, “that’ll be a tenth ounce silver.” As the US dollar’s decline accelerates, several efforts around the country are trying to make this vision a reality. Historically, paying for items in […]
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    Pentonomics – Clear Sailing?

    The European sovereign debt crisis is now over, Japan is 100% back on-line and as QEII returns to port; it’s clear sailing ahead for the U.S. economy. Investors seem to share the same view as Don Luskin, who said last night on the Kudlow Report that, “We’ve solved all the fundamental problems in this country.” […]
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    Pentonomics – Government “Solutions”

    June 28, 2011 at 1:07 PM As pictures of civil unrest in Athens are broadcast today in the U.S., we are being assured by the MSM that Greece has little in common with America. That’s why it is up to me to inform our clients that U.S. deficits and debt as a percentage of GDP […]
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    Pentonomics – The Extinction of Retirement

    June 15, 2011 at 10:57 AM For the better part of a century the foundations for a semi-comfortable retirement for many Americans have rested on the financial pillars of rising real estate and equity prices, positive real interest rates on savings, the continued solvency of public and private pension plans, and the reliability of national […]
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    END GAME

    June 14, 2011 at 12:19 PM Economic data over the past weeks, punctuated by last week’s dismal employment reports, confirm the diminishing impact of the stimulus efforts orchestrated by the Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve. In what must be a huge disappointment to Keynesian enthusiasts, the record doses of both monetary and fiscal narcotics […]
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    Pentonomics – Central Bankruptcy – Why QE3 is Inevitable

    June 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM As the U.S. economy seemingly limps out of the Great Recession most analysts now assume that the Federal Reserve will soon join the tide of other central banks and bring an end to the current era of unprecedented monetary expansion. Markets expect that Fed will begin withdrawing liquidity this […]
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    Pentonomics – Stimulus Wears Off

    June 1, 2011 at 5:36 PM The artificially engineered U.S. recovery is already starting to falter as a continuous procession of disappointing data continues to confirm the sad truth. Recent numbers on GDP, durable goods, housing, regional manufacturing, initial unemployment claims and leading economic indicators all indicate a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. Just today […]
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    AFTER THE DOLLAR: WHAT COMES NEXT?

    June 1, 2011 at 5:06 PM THE DOLLAR’S TERRIBLE FATE My readers are familiar with my forecast that the US dollar is in terminal decline. America is tragically bankrupt, unable to pay its lenders without printing the dollars to do so, and enmeshed in an economic depression. The clock is ticking until the dollar faces […]
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    Pentonomics – Soft Patch or Quick Sand?

    May 31, 2011 at 5:14 PM The deluge of weak data continued today with home prices and manufacturing taking a dive. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city index of property values fell 3.6% in March from a year ago, which the biggest year-over-year decline since November 2009. The index is now at the weakest level since March […]
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    Pentonomics – Training Wheels Off, Crash Helmets On

    May 20, 2011 at 3:09 PM Based on many pronouncements by economic policy makers, reams of articles by the top financial journalists and near continuous discussion on the financial news channels, it appears that the quantitative easing juggernaut that has steamed the high seas of macroeconomics for the last three years is finally pulling into […]
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    Pentonomics – Monopoly Money and Manufacturing

    May 18, 2011 at 10:09 PM For an investor to prosper, it is imperative to understand the mindset of those relatively few individuals in government who control the direction of the economy and the markets. One such person is C. Fred Bergsten. This gentleman has many titles; He is a Senior Fellow for the Council […]
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    Raising the Roof on Debt

    May 16, 2011 at 5:25 PM Today the U.S. government officially borrowed beyond its $14.29 trillion statutory debt limit. And even though the Obama administration has assured us that accounting gimmickry will allow the government to borrow for another few months, the breach has given seeming urgency to Congressional negotiations to raise the debt ceiling. […]
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    Pentonomics – Two Different Worlds

    May 12, 2011 at 11:18 AM Yippee! Consumers continue to dig themselves deeper into debt. Consumer credit has now increased two quarters in a row after falling 1.7% during all of 2010. In the fourth quarter of 2010, Americans increased their borrowing at a 2.1% annual rate and in Q1 2011 that borrowing picked up […]
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    Pentonomics – A Double Dip Recession

    May 9, 2011 at 11:25 PM The evidence of a double-dipping housing market and economy are becoming undeniable, even to those who still perilously cling to the notion that government intervention has been a salve instead of a poison. The main evidence presented on the part of the perma-bulls of a healing economy is that […]
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    The Institutional Gold Rush

    May 7, 2011 at 9:25 AM I have worked on Wall Street my entire life, and one thing I’ve learned is that large institutional investors, like pension funds and endowments, rarely veer from the herd. They manage too much of other people’s money to stick their necks out alone – if their investments go bad, […]
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    Pentonomics – My Invitation to Bernanke’s Press Conference

    April 26, 2011 at 12:53 PM Fed Head Bernanke will say in his first press conference tomorrow that QE II will end as scheduled in June. The Chairman will also stipulate that he will maintain the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and that interest rates will remain exceptionally low for an extended period of […]
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    Pentonomics – Inflation Destroys Real Wages

    In the same vein as medieval physicians believed bloodletting would cure illness, modern snake-oil economists still perilously cling to their claim that rising wages and salaries are the cause of inflation. With my recent debates with these mainstream economists, I’ve heard the following: “without rising wages, where does the money come from to push prices higher?” I was tempted to respond, “where do the […]
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    Late to The Party…Once Again

    The only thing more ridiculous than S&P’s too little too late semi-downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt was the market’s severe reaction to the announcement. Has S&P really added anything to the debate that wasn’t already widely known? In any event, S&P’s statement amounts to a wake up call to anyone who has somehow managed to sleepwalk through […]
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    Pentonomics – Inflation Destroys Real Wages

    April 18, 2011 at 4:41 PM In the same vein as medieval physicians believed bloodletting would cure illness, modern snake-oil economists still perilously cling to their claim that rising wages and salaries are the cause of inflation. With my recent debates with these mainstream economists, I’ve heard the following: “without rising wages, where does the […]
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    Core Incompetency

    April 4, 2011 at 11:02 PM For years the Federal Reserve has told us that in order to detect inflation in the economy it is important to separate “signal from noise” by focusing on “core” inflation statistics, which exclude changes in food and energy prices. Because food and energy figure so prominently into consumer spending, […]
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    Pentonomics – The Inflation Knuckleball

    By its very definition, fiat money is something created out of thin air: the word “fiat” is Latin for “let it be done” (as in, by decree). But the convenience that such a currency system offers central bankers is paid at the expense of savers. With nothing of real or lasting value on which to anchor, the value of fiat currencies can […]
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    The Treasury Auction Shell Game

    Very few people have either the time or patience to sift through the data released by the Treasury Department in the wake of its bond auctions. But the numbers do provide direct evidence of the country’s current financial condition that in many ways mirror a financial shell game that typifies our entire economy. Despite continued […]
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    Quake Response Puts Yen on the Line

    One of the immediate financial consequences of the catastrophic Japanese earthquake is that Japan needs to call on its huge cache of foreign exchange reserves to rebuild its shattered infrastructure. To pay for domestic projects, Japan will require yen – not dollars, euros or Swiss francs. As a result of these conversions, the yen rallied considerably after the quake struck. But a […]
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    Japanese Fallout May Hit Treasuries

    Japan is facing two meltdowns in the wake of its devastating earthquake. The first, and more critical, is the meltdown at the Fukushima I Nuclear Plant, 150 miles north of Tokyo. Surely, this is the greater near-term threat. But long-term, another threat looms, having to do with the Japanese government’s response to the former. As […]
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    Pentonomics – Bernanke and the IMF

    February 18, 2011 at 11:53 AM Fed head Bernanke defended U.S. dollar debasement in France today ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting. He said, “Emerging market economies have a strong interest in a continued economic recovery in the advanced countries, which accommodative monetary policies in the advanced economies are designed to promote.” There you have […]
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    Pentonomics – Interest Rates Are on the Launch Pad

    A few months ago, the chorus sung by the recovery cheerleaders reached a crescendo when expanding consumer credit statistics and surging US trade deficits provided them with “evidence” of an economic rebound. In declaring victory, they overlooked the very nucleus of this past crisis: namely, the enormous debt levels and bubbling inflation that created fragile […]
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    Pentonomics – Interest Rates Are on the Launch Pad

    March 14, 2011 at 5:26 PM A few months ago, the chorus sung by the recovery cheerleaders reached a crescendo when expanding consumer credit statistics and surging US trade deficits provided them with “evidence” of an economic rebound. In declaring victory, they overlooked the very nucleus of this past crisis: namely, the enormous debt levels […]
    Schiff Radio

    The Treasury Auction Shell Game

    March 24, 2011 at 12:31 PM Very few people have either the time or patience to sift through the data released by the Treasury Department in the wake of its bond auctions. But the numbers do provide direct evidence of the country’s current financial condition that in many ways mirror a financial shell game that […]
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    Pentonomics – The Charles Evans Show

    March 7, 2011 at 9:39 PM CNBC was competing with viewers from the Comedy Channel this morning when it aired an interview with Charles Evans, the President of the Chicago Federal Reserve. Mr. Evans claimed that U.S. inflation is currently low, even though oil prices were surging past $105 a barrel during his interview. He […]
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    Pentonomics – A Tourniquet is Now Needed

    The budget deficit for February hit another all-time high record high. The federal government posted a monthly deficit of $223 billion, which was the largest monthly deficit in the history of the USA. It was the 29th consecutive month of red ink—another record. In fact, to put that $223 billion into perspective, the total deficit […]
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    Pentonomics – The Charles Evans Show

    CNBC was competing with viewers from the Comedy Channel this morning when it aired an interview with Charles Evans, the President of the Chicago Federal Reserve. Mr. Evans claimed that U.S. inflation is currently low, even though oil prices were surging past $105 a barrel during his interview. He went on to explain that Fed […]
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    A Little Understanding Goes a Long Way

    As the world confronts one of the most critical periods of economic upheaval that it has ever seen, it is clear that our most influential economic stewards have absolutely no idea what they are doing. But, like kids with a new chemistry set, they are nevertheless unwilling to let that stand in the way of […]
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    Gold Scams Revisited

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 03/06/2014 at 6:28 PM Before Bear Stearns and Lehman collapsed, the market for physical gold was limited to a relatively small group of investors who understood the havoc inflation was wreaking on our savings and the US markets. As the financial crisis took hold, a flood of new and inexperienced buyers entered the market, creating […]
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    Pentonomics – The Clock is Ticking

    March 4, 2011 at 9:10 PM As I said yesterday, if you borrow trillions of dollars over the course of a couple of years—most of which are printed—and you make money free for more than two years; you will get a little bit of growth but whole ton of inflation. Gold and oil are rising […]
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    Pentonomics – A Bad Tradeoff

    March 3, 2011 at 9:19 PM This morning’s data proves yet again that if you borrow and print a massive amount of money you may perhaps, however temporary, get a little bit of economic growth, but you’re 100% sure to get a whole lot of inflation. Today we saw an uptick in The Institute for […]
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    Pentonomics – Taps for the Dollar

    It now appears that the United States has finally succeeded in its efforts to destroy confidence in the U.S. dollar. Given the currency’s reserve status, its ubiquity in financial markets, and the economic power and political position of the United States, this was no easy task. However, to get the job done Washington chose the […]
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    SILVER OUTWEIGHS GOLD

    March 2, 2011 at 1:01 PM In the world of precious metals, silver spends a lot of time in the shadow of its big brother gold. Gold, with its high price-to-weight and distinctive yellow tint, has always occupied a special place in the human psyche. To many people across many ages, gold is simply the […]
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    Pentonomics – Taps for the Dollar

    March 2, 2011 at 11:47 AM It now appears that the United States has finally succeeded in its efforts to destroy confidence in the U.S. dollar. Given the currency’s reserve status, its ubiquity in financial markets, and the economic power and political position of the United States, this was no easy task. However, to get […]
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    Pentonomics – The ISM says Inflation is Here

    March 1, 2011 at 11:41 AM Bernanke said today during his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington that the surge in oil and commodity prices in general probably won’t cause a permanent increase in overall inflation and reiterated that borrowing costs are likely to stay low for an extended period […]
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    Pentonomics – The Fed’s Batting Avg.

    February 28, 2011 at 11:36 AM Rest easy all of you 43 million people on food stamps. The President of the St. Louis Fed, Jim Bullard, said in a CNBC interview this morning that; “The economy’s definitely doing better than it was last summer and fall…So I’m encouraged by that. I think we’re in good […]
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    Pentonomics – Rosy Guesstimations

    February 25, 2011 at 11:31 AM The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, which was significantly slower than the previously estimated 3.2%. For all of 2010, the U.S. economy expanded 2.8%, after contracting 2.6% in 2009. The average annual […]
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    Pentonomics – Arab Autocracies and US Inflation

    February 24, 2011 at 3:54 PM Civil revolt is currently spreading across the Arab world. What began in Tunisia has now metastasized into Bahrain, Egypt and Libya. Though two dictators have been ousted, the chances that these regimes will fundamentally transform from autocracy to a system of free markets and property rights are also up […]
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    Pentonomics – Bernanke and the IMF

    Fed head Bernanke defended U.S. dollar debasement in France today ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting. He said, “Emerging market economies have a strong interest in a continued economic recovery in the advanced countries, which accommodative monetary policies in the advanced economies are designed to promote.” There you have Ben’s entire motive and strategy in […]
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    Pentonomics – Geithner’s Failed Makeover

    To counter the increasing demands that government reduce its micromanagement of the economy, last week the Obama Administration offered a fig leaf in the form of a white paper entitled “Reforming America’s Housing Finance Market.” In addition to marking the official end of the Bush era “ownership society,” where increasing the level of home ownership […]
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    Pentonomics – Trade Deficit Woes

    February 11, 2011 at 12:17 PM The U.S. trade deficit increased by 5.9% to $40.6 billion during the month of December, which was up $38.3 billion from the prior month. For the year 2010, the trade gap surged 43%, which was the biggest jump in a decade, as our government’s efforts to reignite consumer borrowing […]
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    Obama Spins Subsidies Both Ways

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 02/11/2014 at 7:47 PM In our current age of spin and counter-spin, there is no contortion too great for a politician to attempt. On occasion, however, the threads of one story become entangled with another in a manner that should deeply embarrass, if the media were sharp enough to catch it. This happened last week […]
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    The Two Faces of Ben Bernanke

    February 10, 2011 at 12:22 PM Based on his recent public comments, Fed Chairman Bernanke seems determined to give the U.S. dollar the reputation of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak: an unwanted relic of the past that everyone agrees must go, but stubbornly clings to a privileged position. The dollar is currently the world’s ruling currency, but, […]
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    Pentonomics – The Return of the Misery Index

    February 9, 2011 at 4:24 PM The website Zillow.com reported today that YOY home price declines were 5.9% and that of those homeowners with a mortgage, 27% were underwater on their property. Maybe this concrete evidence of a double-dip in the real estate market has something to do with surging borrowing costs. Today, the cost […]
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    Pentonomics – China is Ahead of the Curve

    February 8, 2011 at 11:20 PM The only thing melting up faster than the U.S. equity market these days is U.S. Treasury yields. The Ten year note is trading at 3.66% this morning—I wonder if Bernanke views that as a successful outcome of QEII? Meanwhile, Freddie Mac says the average rate on a 30 year […]
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    Pentonomics – JPM Has Seen the Light

    February 7, 2011 at 11:27 PM Even JPMorgan is losing faith in the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The bank is already a custodian for some precious metal ETFs; but now has also decided to accept physical gold as collateral with its counterparties. JPM said it would take gold as collateral to satisfy […]
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    Dark Gold: Shedding Light On A Mysterious Market

    Posted by Peter Schiff on 02/06/2014 at 10:06 AM Gold is the simplest of financial assets – you either own it or you don’t. Yet, at the same time, gold is also among the most private of assets. Once an individual locks his or her safe, that gold effectively disappears from the market at large. Unlike bank deposits or stocks, […]
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    Pentonomics – The Cause and Evidence of Inflation

    February 4, 2011 at 11:23 AM On the Kudlow program dated Tuesday February 1st, Donald Luskin gave his version of the textbook definition of inflation as “an overall rise in the overall price level.” But my 1988 edition of the Webster’s Dictionary puts it differently. Their definition of inflation is, “An increase in the volume […]
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    Pentonomics – Never any Doubts

    February 1, 2011 at 11:39 AM Today’s ISM report completely spells out the Fed’s true agenda.  The Purchasing Managers Index came in at 60.8%, however, the Prices Paid Component surged to 81.5! Bernanke is just too intelligent to believe deflation is the nation’s biggest concern. Perhaps his deflation argument is a red herring. Just to […]
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    A Mockery of a Sham

    January 31, 2011 at 4:00 AM Back in October of 2009, when Congress first announced the formation of a commission to investigate the cause of the 2008 financial crisis, I knew immediately that their ultimate conclusions would support the agendas of their respective political parties. (Watch the video blog I recorded that day) Particularly, I […]
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    Pentonomics – Bernanke’s Golden Dismount

    January 24, 2011 at 2:47 PM There can be little doubt that Fed Chairman Benjamin Bernanke has been a very, very good friend to gold investors. However, some of those who have benefited from his largesse now fear that the recent selloff in gold indicates an imminent end to Bernanke’s monetary high-wire act. Most assume […]
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    Pentonomics – Fence Sitters Jump In

    January 20, 2011 at 5:39 PM The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell 37,000 in the week ended Jan. 15, the biggest decline since February 2010, to 404,000, figures from the Labor Department showed today. The four-week moving average dropped to 411,750 from 415,750. While the trend in claims is […]
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    China’s Inflation Problem Looms Large

    The global economy has become so unbalanced that even government ministers who would normally have trouble explaining supply or demand clearly recognize that something has to give. To a very large extent the distortions are caused by China’s long-standing policy of pegging its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar. But as China’s economy gains strength, and […]
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    Pentonomics – Dollar Traders See the Chasm

    January 19, 2011 at 6:34 PM The U.S. dollar is down another half of one percent today. And I’m no technical analyst by any means, but if I was I would say that it is in the process of putting in a head and shoulders top. Maybe the reason is because congress must once again […]
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    China’s Inflation Problem Looms Large

    January 19, 2011 at 6:25 PM The global economy has become so unbalanced that even government ministers who would normally have trouble explaining supply or demand clearly recognize that something has to give. To a very large extent the distortions are caused by China’s long-standing policy of pegging its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. […]
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    Pentonomics – Ben’s Blind Eye

    January 14, 2011 at 9:26 PM The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary January index of consumer sentiment decreased to 72.7 from 74.5 a month earlier and I think I know why. If consumers can’t find an adequate amount of good paying jobs but are nevertheless faced with significant cost of living expenses, they tend to […]
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    Pentonomics – More Stagflationary Data

    After having to do the perfunctory revision higher to the previous week’s claims data, the Labor Department announced that initial jobless claims jumped by 35k in the first week of 2011. Seasonally adjusted first-time claims registered 445k. However, if that wasn’t bad enough, the unadjusted claim number surged by 191,686 claims in the week ending […]
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    Stuart Rothenberg and the Arrogance of Honesty

    Opinion Piece in Washington Times, January 12, 2010 In the early fall of 2009, just before I announced my candidacy for the U.S. Senate, I was introduced to a number of Washington-based political analysts and journalists. Among the group was Stuart Rothenberg, writer of the Rothenberg Political Report, a classic “inside the Beltway” publication targeted […]
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    Pentonomics – More Stagflationary Data

    January 13, 2011 at 9:17 PM After having to do the perfunctory revision higher to the previous week’s claims data, the Labor Department announced that initial jobless claims jumped by 35k in the first week of 2011. Seasonally adjusted first-time claims registered 445k. However, if that wasn’t bad enough, the unadjusted claim number surged by […]
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    Pentonomics – Import Prices and Inflation

    January 12, 2011 at 7:30 PM In keeping with the tradition of believing the Emperor Has New Clothes, the U.S. consumer must try to just imagine that inflation isn’t a problem. The cost of goods imported into the U.S. rose in December, led by higher prices for commodities such as fuels and food. Import prices […]
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    Stuart Rothenberg and the Arrogance of Honesty

    January 13, 2011 at 5:46 PM Opinion Piece in Washington Times, January 12, 2010 In the early fall of 2009, just before I announced my candidacy for the U.S. Senate, I was introduced to a number of Washington-based political analysts and journalists. Among the group was Stuart Rothenberg, writer of the Rothenberg Political Report, a […]
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    Pentonomics – Import Prices and Inflation

    In keeping with the tradition of believing the Emperor Has New Clothes, the U.S. consumer must try to just imagine that inflation isn’t a problem. The cost of goods imported into the U.S. rose in December, led by higher prices for commodities such as fuels and food. Import prices surged by 1.1% last month after […]
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    Pentonomics – Clouds Hover Over Small Business and Europe

    January 11, 2011 at 6:31 PM The economic news today was light except for the fact that European debt crisis continues to get worse and Small Business Optimism fell yet again. The Index of Small Business Optimism put out by the NFIB lost 0.6 points in December, dropping to 92.6, which was the36th month of […]
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    Pentonomics – A Victory for the Government

    January 10, 2011 at 5:51 PM There was a piece of significant news that was released last Friday at 3PM in the afternoon. Consumer credit expanded last month by $1.35 billion when the estimates had been for a decline of $2.5 billion. The prior month was revised to an increase of $7 billion, which had […]
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    Pentonomics – The Champagne Stays On Ice

    January 7, 2011 at 6:01 PM Well, as I predicted on Wednesday, the ADP report turned out to be Another Dubious Prediction. The establishment survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. created just 103k NFP jobs in December. The unemployment rate dropped, as measured from the household survey,  from 9.8% to […]
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    Pentonomics – President Obama…Tear Down These Factories!

    January 6, 2011 at 4:53 PM Guess what? Shocker of all shockers, the Labor Department underestimated the number of initial jobless claims last week! They originally said that 388k individuals filed for first time jobless benefits. In the week ending January 1st, the Labor Department had to revise higher its count by 3k. But still, […]
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    Pentonomics – ADP May Stand For A Dubious Prediction

    January 5, 2011 at 4:50 PM This morning’s ADP report showed that employers increased payrolls by 297,000, which was the biggest gain in the history of the report. Although this is a very strong number it is important to point out that of the total 297k jobs created 270,000 were in the service sector. This […]
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    Pentonomics – Better Data Doesn’t Mean a Better Economy

    Some more seemingly better economic news was released today from the Commerce Department. Factory orders increased by .7% in the month of November, as compared to a .7% decline in the prior month. Orders for capital goods increased by 2.6% following a 3.2% drop in October. The recent spate of better economic data has caused […]
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    Pentonomics – ISM Has Some Warts

    January 3, 2011 at 10:53 PM Some seemingly better economic news was released today from the Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing report. The ISM index climbed to 57 last month from 56.6 in November. However, the employment index slowed from 57.5 to 55.7, while the inflation index increased yet again. The prices paid component rose […]
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    Forever Stamps Tell Us Much

    December 31, 2010 at 10:47 PM The United States Postal Service announced this week that all future first class postage stamps sold will be the so–called “forever stamps” that have no face value but are guaranteed to cover the cost of mailing a first class letter, regardless of how high that cost may rise in […]
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    Wall Street Gives Uncle Sam Too Much Credit

    December 13, 2010 at 1:39 PM Despite the fact that the S&P is up over 80% in the last 21 months, US financial firms are currently tripping over each other in their zeal to raise their S&P 500 and GDP targets for 2011. JPMorgan’s chief US equities strategist, Thomas Lee, came out on December 3rd […]
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    Bernanke: 60 Minutes, 2 Big Lies

    December 7, 2010 at 1:18 PM This past Sunday on the CBS program “60 Minutes”, Americans received a massive dose of mendacity from our Fed Chairman. Mr. Bernanke’s shaky delivery, and even shakier logic may cause faith in America’s economic leadership to evaporate faster than the value of our dollar. In particular, Bernanke delivered two […]
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    More Stimulus Means Fewer Jobs

    December 6, 2010 at 1:26 PM Today’s payroll report severely disappointed on the downside and left economists scratching their heads to explain the weakness. The explanation, however, is plain as day. As I have been saying for years, the US economy will not create jobs as long as the Fed keeps interest rates artificially low, […]
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    The Duel over the Dual Mandate

    November 24, 2010 at 6:47 PM Given the opposing views of the potentially parsimonious new Congress and the continuously accommodative Federal Reserve, there is a movement afoot among Republicans to eliminate the Fed’s “dual mandate.” Prior to 1977, the Fed only had one job: maintaining price stability. However, the stagflation of the 1970s inspired politicians […]
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    Gold’s Allure Tied to Interest Rates

    November 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM The continued bull market in the price of gold has been one of the staple discussions in the financial media for the better part of a decade. But, in that time, almost no consensus has emerged to explain the phenomenon. If you ask ten Wall Street pundits to explain […]
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    Should Gold Fear Higher Interest Rates

    November 16, 2010 at 6:47 PM If you ask 10 Wall Street pundits what drives the price of gold you will most likely get a variety of different answers. Some will say its fear or uncertainty, while others may claim it is international strife or the Indian wedding season. However, the truth is the main […]
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    Pentonomics – President Obama…Tear Down These Factories!

    January 6, 2011 at 4:53 PM Guess what? Shocker of all shockers, the Labor Department underestimated the number of initial jobless claims last week! They originally said that 388k individuals filed for first time jobless benefits. In the week ending January 1st, the Labor Department had to revise higher its count by 3k. But still, […]
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    There Was a Fed Chairman Who Swallowed a Fly

    November 9, 2010 at 3:17 PM While it’s true that history repeats itself, the patterns should always be separated by a generation or two to keep things respectable. Unfortunately, in today’s economic world, it seems the cycle can be counted in months. On July 24, 2009, just as the Federal Reserve unleashed its first quantitative […]
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    Five Bitter Pills or One Sweet but Deadly?

    November 3, 2010 at 1:35 PM It seems the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve is of the belief that diluting the dollar is the cure for everything from a recession to male pattern baldness. And like other snake-oil salesmen before him, Mr. Bernanke is heavy on promises and light on results. Here are five […]
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    Keep Your Head Above Dollar

    October 29, 2010 at 1:14 PM There has been so much discussion recently about “QE 2″ that you would think the entire financial sector were about to embark on a transatlantic cruise. Unfortunately, they, and we, are not so lucky. In the year 2010, “QE 2″ doesn’t refer to a sumptuous ocean liner, but a […]
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    Don’t Fear the Euro – I’ll Take the Euro in a Pinch

    October 22, 2010 at 6:50 PM The latest commentary from Michael Pento, Senior Economist of Euro Pacific Capital: When the euro hit a low of $1.1917 against the US dollar on June 7th, 2010, the airwaves crackled with assertions that the European common currency, beset by Greek debt problems and intra-union discord, was destined to […]
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    Decoupling: Alive and Well

    October 21, 2010 at 12:30 PM By: Neeraj Chaudhary While the US economy continues to weaken (see my recent commentary: Don’t Doubt the Double-Dip), many foreign economies continue to experience solid – even spectacular – economic growth. When the global economic crisis began in 2008, many forecasters doubted that the world economy could return to […]
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    The Treasury Department’s Racial Favoritism

    The Treasury Department this morning announced plans to sell another 1.5 billion shares of Citigroup common stock: “Treasury currently owns approximately 3.6 billion shares of Citigroup common stock and expects to continue selling its shares in the market in an orderly fashion. The sale of 1.5 billion additional shares of Citigroup common stock, as authorized […]
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    The Hail Mary

    October 8, 2010 at 6:53 PM Since the US economy has failed to recover as widely predicted, pressure on the Federal Reserve to conjure a solution has increased. In fact, the Fed now faces the hardest choices in its history. It can either redouble its past efforts to re-inflate America’s bubble economy (risking the destruction […]
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    Tax Cuts Won’t Cut It

    October 18, 2010 at 1:50 PM Congressional Republicans and Democrats are engaged in a heated debate over which Americans deserve not to have their taxes raised, with both claiming that some form of tax cut will stimulate the economy. The primary point of divergence is what type of cuts will be most likely to get […]
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    Schiff Responds to Dudley, Fed

    October 1, 2010 at 6:56 PM NY Fed President William Dudley’s outrageous statements today closely conform to recent pronouncements from other Fed officials and confirm that a massive round of dollar devaluation is poised to begin. Seemingly overnight, the Fed appears to have altered its mandate, ditching its former goal of “price stability” in favor […]
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    The Hail Mary

    Since the US economy has failed to recover as widely predicted, pressure on the Federal Reserve to conjure a solution has increased. In fact, the Fed now faces the hardest choices in its history. It can either redouble its past efforts to re-inflate America’s bubble economy (risking the destruction of the US dollar) or it can […]
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    Race to the Bottom

    Long ago, before economic models developed their current levels of sophistication, it used to be that the goal of a government’s economic policy was to bring prosperity to its citizens; in other words, to raise the general level of material comfort, while at the same time reducing the amount of toil required to attain that […]
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    Don’t Doubt the Double Dip

    By: Neeraj Chaudhary A few weeks ago Nouriel Roubini, widely regarded as one of the more pessimistic figures on Wall Street, made headlines by raising his forecasted likelihood of a “double dip recession” to a terrifying 40%. The vast majority of “mainstream” economists (although I would argue Roubini himself is part of that pack) described […]
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    Japan Intervenes to Bail Out America.com

    September 17, 2010 at 7:21 PM This week, after the Japanese yen had surged to a fifteen-year high against the US dollar, the Japanese government decided to intervene in the foreign exchange market. To great fanfare, the Bank of Japan initiated a vigorous campaign to buy US dollars, thereby stemming the rise of the yen […]
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    Flying Blind

    August 27, 2010 at 7:24 PM Watching economists and media analysts react to breaking economic news is a bit like looking at a flock of pigeons flying over the New York skyline. A true wonder of the urban landscape, the flocks can include hundreds of individuals who show an uncanny ability to stay in tight […]
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    Carts and Horses

    August 23, 2010 at 7:25 PM In a CNBC debate last week, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich presented a set of contradictory beliefs that unfortunately reflect the conventional wisdom of modern economists. In a discussion with Wall Street Journal columnist Stephen Moore, Reich correctly and comprehensively listed the reasons why American consumers could spend so […]
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    Monetary Cards on the Table

    August 19, 2010 at 7:32 PM In a commentary about a month ago, I described how the economic world seemed to be drifting into two opposing camps: the Washington-based “Stimulators,” who insist that more government debt is the best means to end the financial crisis, and the Berlin- and London-based “Austerians,” who argue that debt […]
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    No Exit – Stage Left or Right

    August 13, 2010 at 7:29 PM This week, national attention was fixated on JetBlue flight attendant Steven Slater, whose bold, creative, and controversial exit strategy could revitalize his future prospects. Not nearly as noticed was the Federal Reserve’s decision on Tuesday to avoid finding an exit strategy for its own never-ending career trap. Unfortunately, the […]
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    Why Not Another World War?

    There is overwhelming agreement among economists that the Second World War was responsible for decisively ending the Great Depression. When asked why the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are failing to make the same impact today, they often claim that the current conflicts are simply too small to be economically significant. There is, of course, […]
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    The New Ideological Divide

    June 28, 2010 at 7:37 PM Despite the apparent deficit-cutting solidarity that emerged from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Toronto, it is clear that the great powers of the industrialized world have not been this philosophically estranged since the end of the Cold War. Ironically, in this new contest, the former belligerents have switched sides […]
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    Pentonomics – Better Data Doesn’t Mean a Better Economy

    January 4, 2011 at 10:58 PM Some more seemingly better economic news was released today from the Commerce Department. Factory orders increased by .7% in the month of November, as compared to a .7% decline in the prior month. Orders for capital goods increased by 2.6% following a 3.2% drop in October. The recent spate […]